Venezuela, Greenland, Minneapolis….


IS HE JUST MAD OR IS THERE A STRATEGY?


More and more people think that the winner of the FIFA Peace Prize is suffering from serious mental degradation. They call him crazy, insane, nuts, flipped, deranged, disturbed, bonkers, lunatic, utterly mad and much more. But could it be that his rantings and obsessions hide a rational strategy?

Lately, the owner of Maria Machado’s Nobel Prize medal has shown even more symptoms of dementia than usual. No need to list examples: you’ve undoubtedly seen plenty of them on different media, moments that made you shake your head and wonder how such an idiot could become the most powerful person in the world.

But whatever you may think about the mental health of the self-proclaimed “acting president of Venezuela”, he is not an absolute monarch, even though he would like to be one. His power is not simply the result of his election victory in 2024; he owes it to the continued support of the majority in Congress and, above all, the capital markets. If they considered him a dangerous madman, his throne would quickly falter. When the stock and bond markets feel he’s sowing too much uncertainty and show their disapproval Trump tends to listen immediately. A sharp drop in US stock markets was enough to make his threat of a military invasion of Greenland disappear. So if the capital markets did not react earlier, it must be because they did not consider his bluster to be so damaging for their interests.

The most obvious common thread that runs through all the main policies of the Trump government, from the raid in Venezuela, the military threats against various countries and the claim of Greenland to the terror campaign of ICE, to name but some recent examples, is that they all sow fear and are designed to do so. So the question is, for what purpose?

Sowing fear abroad

Assuming there is no difference between Trump’s public persona and the man behind the scenes, he seems to live in his own irrational world of which he is the glorious center, impervious to reasonable arguments but sometimes easily persuaded by flattery and subservience. “A chimpanzee with a hand grenade,” “a spoiled toddler who throws a fit when he doesn’t get his way”—is how he is sometimes described in the media. And what do you do with a toddler who has so much power, with a monkey who can cause so much mischief? You handle him very carefully. You seek de-escalation. You make concessions to the toddler to calm him down, you try to distract the monkey so that he leaves the grenade alone. Out of fear that he might do something catastrophic like raise his tariffs again or invade Greenland, you humour him, you give him something that he wants. That seems to be the tactic that America’s allies/vassals have used in dealing with Trump. Or, seen from another angle, that is the excuse Trump gave them to do what they wanted to do anyway.

Brendan Loper in The New Yorker

Suppose there is indeed a difference between the boorish bully we see in public and the man behind closed doors, surrounded by his strategists. I’m not suggesting that Trump himself is a smart geopolitical strategist, nor that his advisers are always on the same page, yet the hypothesis that there is a long term strategy behind the main domestic and foreign actions of the US government does not appear unlikely. What then, was the strategy behind Trump’s seemingly crazy desire to annex Greenland?

Was the goal to establish American military bases in Greenland? Nothing prevented the US from doing that already; a 1951 treaty with Denmark gives it the right to set up as many bases on the island as it wants.

Was the goal to grab Greenland’s raw materials? Those raw materials are now the property of the semi-autonomous Greenlandic state. In the event of annexation, they would become the property of the US federal government, so that could be a possible motive. But for now, that would only be a small gain. There is currently only one active mine in the whole of Greenland. Mining companies are not eager to gain access due to the extreme logistical challenges. These may become less extreme as a result of global warming, but the outlook is uncertain. In any case, the profits would be insignificant compared to the loss that such a disruption of the NATO alliance would represent.

But maybe the goal was to blow up NATO? That is an hypothesis which has been heavily promoted by the media and politicians. Even Starmer and Macron have implied it. Canadian prime minister Carney claimed that a rupture is occurring in geopolitical relations: the allies of the US can no longer count on its military support and must band together. Pundits tell us that Trump wants to take the world back to the 19th century, when the great powers of back then carved up the globe, each ruling over its own ‘sphere of influence’ and respecting each other’s (a debatable interpretation of history). The US military intervention in Venezuela was seen as proof of this trend: Trump proclaimed the “Donroe doctrine”, updating the warning of the sixth president of the US to other powers to stay out of its backyard. In contemporary terms that would mean that the American continent would be the exclusive playground of the US, and that the US would accept that China and Russia would demarcate a similar exclusive domain in their own respective regions. But it would be foolish to mistake the tightening of the US’s grip on Latin America for a withdrawal from the rest of the world. The opposite is true. Whether in Europe, the Middle East or South Asia, the inter-imperialist rivalry between the great powers is increasing. In all these regions, US capital is seeking to counter the advances of its enemies. It would be shooting itself in the foot if it would be abandoning NATO at the same time. That the Trump government is openly contemptuous of its Europeans counterparts is an established fact. It’s even explicit in its Strategic Directive published last December. Some of it is theater, some is heartfelt right wing ideology. But none of it implies an intention to end the transatlantic military alliance. That would be stupid, even on a merely transactional level: members are required to make their arsenals conform to NATO standards which in practice more often than not means that they must buy American weapons. So the more NATO escalates its war preparation, the bigger the market for the American military industrial complex.

A message from the White House

A new Strategy

A quick reminder of the context: capitalism, the global system, is in a deep crisis from which there’s no way out. The many trillions of dollars, yens, euros and yuan that have been created since 2008 have shored up capitalists at the expense of everyone else by giving them an ever larger size of the total buying power (money). Money to spend, to invest, to send stock prices through the roof, to become more money for a while (bitcoin and other schemes) and so on. So the Economist may ask: crisis, what crisis? And yes, on the surface, that may sound right, depending on what is measured (and how it is measured: unemployment for instance, is grossly undercounted in the US and many other countries). But scratch that surface and you’ll see that the rot in the foundations has spread further. You’ll see that the current growth, to the limited extent that it expresses productive investment, has been spearheaded by technology aimed at reducing the part of human labor in the production of commodities even further. The robots are taking over as never before and they yield their masters surplus profits, at the expense of competitors who have no robots or only older models. Until the robots are everywhere and deflation (or it may be inflation, depending on the policies) asks the question: where is the surplus value?

The robots above are meant literally but also metaphorically as stand-ins for the whole IT-centered economy. Actually, AI chips might be the better stand-in, since that is what the capitalist hopes are pinned on. When I wrote above that capitalism is in a deep crisis, I did not mean that there is a global recession right now (though it seems to be coming). I meant that capitalism is facing conditions in which its very foundation, the collective belief that value equals wealth, is under threat. Since 2008 the focus of the managers of capitalism has been on preventing a contagious collapse of the value of capital. This has implied policies which inevitably widened the income gap and made the growth of capitalism more and more incompatible with the reproduction of the global working class. This article is not the place to delve more deeply into capitalism’s systemic crisis, there are other articles on this site on that subject and one on the impact of AI will be published shortly. The point here is that the worsening systemic crisis is the background of the heightened competition and growing tensions between nations, the economic warfare with tariffs and sanctions and the military incursions that remind us of the breakdowns in the international order that preceded the previous world wars.

Furthermore, within that framework of systemic crisis, the economic balance of power has shifted. The US, while still holding an edge in high tech and finances, has steadily lost ground in industrial production to China. But the latter country’s manufacturing capacity increasingly outpaces global demand.

Latin America is a good example of the growing economic power of China at the expense of the US. Twenty years ago China had barely a foot on the ground there but in 2024 the trade between them exceeded 500 billion dollars. Both as a market for Chinese commodities (including infrastructure), and as a source of raw materials (oil from Venezuela, soy from Brazil, copper from Chile and Peru, lithium from Argentina and so on) Latin America became ever more important for China. And vice versa. For ten of the twelve South-American countries China is now a larger trade partner than the US. China does not only export goods to Latin America, it also exports capital, behaving no different than other capitalist powers in a similar position. Since 2014, it has lent three times as much to Latin America as the US. These loans allow those countries to buy Chinese commodities. One of China’s greatest debtors is Venezuela which paid in oil. Lately, more than two thirds of Venezuela’s oil production went to China. Not anymore.

Maduro receiving a Chinese delegation right before he was kidnapped

Of course, the decapitation of the government of Venezuela had nothing to do with stopping drugs, saving democracy, or fighting (non-existing) socialism. The main purpose was to push back against China’s growing presence in Latin America. It was no coincidence that the American commandos kidnapped Maduro only hours after he had received a high-ranking Chinese delegation at his palace. The timing was meant as a smack in the face. The raid was followed by threats against Colombia and Cuba. Direct American pressure helped mini-Trumps come to power in Argentina, Chile, El Salvador, Honduras and Panama. The latter country was pressured to annul the contracts held by a Chinese company which operated port facilities on opposite ends of the Panama Canal. The American intervention in Venezuela has made it clear to all rulers in Latin America that the US Special Forces can pay them a visit any time they dare to displease Washington.

The deeper the crisis becomes, the greater the incentive for the US to use its military power to compensate for the ground it lost economically and to blackmail weaker nations into submission. The deeper the crisis becomes, the more difficult it becomes for China to find markets large enough to keep its outsized productive apparatus profitable. Economic competition was never merely economic but under the pressure of the systemic crisis it tends to shift more and more to military competition. Global military expenditures have climbed every year since 2015. Wars have multiplied. The nuclear arms race is starting up again with China taking the lead and several non-nuclear nations considering to go nuclear as well, given the increased threats.

A telltale sign of the acceleration of capitalism’s war tendency is the erosion of the international order established after the last world war. The UN’s loss of influence reminds how the League of Nations became irrelevant in the years preceding that war. For Trump the old world order’s ideology and rules hinder the exertion of American power. So forget about ‘international law’, ‘human rights’, the Geneva convention, ‘spreading democracy’, etc. That old ideology is worn out anyway. Stephen Miller, Trump’s influential adviser who is said to be an architect of both the campaign against immigrants and the moves on Venezuela and Greenland, called it “a straitjacket”. In reality, so he explained to a CNN reporter, the world is governed “by iron laws”, “by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power.” So there you have it. The wolf who tells the sheep he’s going to eat them, gets praise for his honesty. Trump, who lies as he breaths, likes honesty too, if it’s fear-inspiring. So the Department of Defense is now the Department of War. And to Venezuela he says: We’re not here to liberate you. We’re here for your oil.

And he means that. The US has extorted a ransom from Venezuela in the form of 50 million barrels of oil, to be sold for profit, plus control over Venezuela’s oil export generally and indefinitely. The US’ interest in Venezuela’s oil may seem curious, given the current oversupply on the global oil market and the relative low quality (high refinery cost) of Venezuelan oil. But in light of the US’s long term strategy of war preparation it is not strange at all. If there is to be another global war, it will pit the US against China. In such a conflict, China’s Achilles heel could be its dependence on imported oil. In recent years the US, with the help of its junior partner Israel, has tightened its military grip on the Middle East and may be in the process of bringing Iran, the main challenger to its dominance there, to its knees. The Venezuela intervention makes clear that China has no reliable source of oil on the American continent either.

The great powers are preparing for a great conflict. Not an imminent war, there are still many obstacles for that to happen. i The US strategy aims to prevent the consolidation of a hostile bloc around China and Russia. Its goal is therefore not to repel allies but to force them to make greater efforts for the joint war preparation. Trump has played this game before. By insinuating that the famous Article 5 of the NATO treaty (“an attack on one is an attack on all”) no longer counts and by questioning the alliance in all sorts of ways, he forced the European NATO-members to pledge a 150% increase in military spending over the next decade, at the expense of the social wage. NATO secretary-general Rutte and other European leaders have openly thanked him for this (and while they did so, you could see them thinking: without your help, we never would have been able to sell this to our public). And now he has done it again: by threatening to annex Greenland, he created the appearance that the US is not only no longer an ally but also a potential enemy! Now European countries have to arm themselves even faster in view of a possible war against the US! And so they have to buy even more American weapons! It’s absurd, but that is the story the European governments are telling their subjects. And with some success: European nationalist fever has risen considerably. That too is war preparation.

The outcome of the Greenland affair makes clear what all the hoopla was about. Greenland will be militarized so that the West will control the northern shipping roads freed by global warming, and Europe will bear most of the costs. China and Russia are banned from mining Greenlandic raw materials, but the US is not. And NATO? NATO is alive and well.

Obviously that is not everyone’s opinion. There is a real tension in NATO, as was evident at the recent Munich Security conference where several European leaders complained of America’s “wrecking ball politics”, even though Marco Rubio assured them of Washington’s enduring friendship. Some think a new world order is taking shape, although it’s not clear what it might look like. The overriding theme of the Munich conference was the unanimous resolve to escalate the ‘rearmament’ of Europe even faster, which must have sounded like sweet music to the ears of the managers of US Capital and its military-industrial complex.

By the way: the hypothesis that there is indeed a rational, albeit sinister, strategy behind Trump’s behavior does not rule out the possibility that he is mentally deteriorating. According to insiders, years of cocaine and amphetamine use (especially Adderall) have severely damaged his brainii. Incidentally, Hitler was also a notorious amphetamine user. And Hitler also suffered from the megalomaniacal narcissism that so many find so attractive in Trump. I do not want to suggest here that Trump is a second Hitler (although his vice president JD Vance did claim exactly that in 2016, before he converted). What Trump’s behavior does make clear is that in capitalist world politics, rationality and madness are not mutually exclusive. And that is especially true when the system is in crisis.

ICE in Minneapolis. Photo David Guttenfelder

Fear and loathing in Minnesota

Just like in his foreign policy is spreading fear the main theme in Trump’s domestic politics. Recent events in Minnesota have amply illustrated this. Again, we need to ask why. What is behind this campaign of terror? Is it a symptom of Trump’s dementia, an expression of blind reactionary ideology, or is it part of a long-term strategy?

Again, the events have received so much attention that it’s not necessary to describe the brutal tactics of the ICE army nor the widespread resistance they provoked. iii Even Bruce Springsteen sings about it. A striking aspect about ICE’s terror in Minneapolis-St Paul is its sheer conspicuousness. You’ would think that the ICE agents, if their goal would be to apprehend undocumented immigrant criminals, that they would act discreetly, in order not to alert their prey. You’d also think that they would arrest (undocumented immigrant) criminals. Instead this campaign unfolded in a way that seemed designed to draw maximal attention to itself and the vast majority of the people arrested did not have a criminal record or only for traffic violations. It included children, old folks, immigrants and citizens. Even native Americans, descendants of the original inhabitants, have been held for days on suspicion of being ‘illegal immigrants’! Basically, anybody brown-skinned speaking Spanish is a potential target. Clearly, the aim is to strike fear.

Brendan Loper in The NewYorker

The why question is relevant. This massive hunt is disrupting economic activity (thousands don’t go to work because they’re afraid to leave their homes) and costs the federal state many billions of dollars. It’s not good for profits. So how can it be good for capital?

One answer could be that it is motivated by the racist ideology of the present US government and made worse by the fact that the many people who join ICE (earning big bonuses) are of the thuggish kind and moreover are badly trained. But that begs an explanation as to why then has racism regained so much importance in the governance of US capitalism. Another possible rationale is that the ICE raids are spectacularly frightful in order to make undocumented immigrants flee the country. According to the Department of Homeland Security 1.8 million have already ‘self-deported’ since Trump regained power. That could indeed be a reason if the government expects a huge increase in unemployment and wants to get rid of the burden of ‘superfluous’people.

But there’s more to it. The fear that the Trump government spreads domestically and the fear that it spreads internationally are both functional to its strategy to prepare for global war.

There’s more to war preparation than producing weapons and training armies. An essential condition is to indoctrinate the population to support the war and endure its horrors. A gradually increasing militarization of society is part of that. The population must get used to the presence of soldiers and armed goons in the streets. In a speech in September Trump declared that American cities should serve as “training grounds” for U.S. troops. “Inner cities are a big part of war,” he said. In other words, war on the cities, and more specifically war on the working class they contain, is a necessary step in the larger war preparation. The demonization of immigrants serves to divide and weaken the working class. The climate of fear is aimed at inducing submission. The Trump administration follows Machiavelli’s advice: “He who controls people’s fear becomes the master of their souls.”

The war effort requires a sense of community at the home front. Workers in the factories and soldiers on the battlefield have to think that they share the same interests as their rulers and exploiters against a common enemy. But the more capital’s real domination penetrates the whole of society, the more it destroys any remnants of pre-capitalist and working class-based community life. Those who have been uprooted are left with a powerful longing for their lost communities. The more frustrating, unsatisfying, and insecure the world shaped by capital has become, the stronger this feeling. And it is the capture of that feeling which is key to the war preparation strategy of the Trump administration and those factions of the ruling class who share it, not only in the US but around the world. The goal is the creation of a national community. A false community that brings people together not on the base of real common interests but on the base of speaking the same language and having the same ethnic, cultural-historical background. Its unity has no rational base, it rests on strong emotions and trust in the great leader.

The MAGA community provides a substitute gratification for the genuine longing for community felt by many. But the identity upon which this community is established necessarily entails the exclusion of those who do not share the common historico-cultural traits. Those excluded, though they live in the same country, become alien elements, infiltrators that need to be removed. In language reminiscent of Hitler, Trump repeatedly has said immigrants coming to the U.S. are “poisoning the blood of our country”. They are all pictured as rapists, murderers, drug pushers, gangsters and terrorists. The purpose was to make them the scapegoat for all the real pain and frustrations mounting in society. The more crisis ridden the society becomes, the more it makes sense for the ruling class to channel the anger it causes away from itself, onto the scapegoat. The very brutality of the ICE thugs then becomes a satisfying ritual of revenge. The greater the rage of the mass against the scapegoat, the more the ruling class can use this rage to mobilize the mass behind its projects, especially war.

From the website of the US Department of Labor

But it seems that the strategy backfired. They must have seriously underestimated the common bonds between migrants and non-migrants in the working class neighborhoods of the twin cities. It was, mutatis mutandis, as if on Kristallnacht (1938) the majority of the Germans would have supported the Jews. The ICE assault provoked a wave of protest and resistance not seen in the US since the George Floyd rebellion in 2020 (which also started in Minneapolis). Hundreds of thousands demonstrated in several cities. Barricades were erected in the streets to impede ICE patrols. Neighborhood ICE watches were organized spontaneously. The gangs of ICE-agents were continuously confronted. Hotels where they stayed were trashed. Food deliveries were organized for migrants too scared to leave the house. Many other creative initiatives were taken, often by people who never protested before. It was beautiful and encouraging to see, even from afar.

And yet. It didn’t make ICE flee the twin cities. They continued their assaults, perhaps a bit less aggressively. Only on February 13 ‘Border Czar” Tom Homan announced a “significant drawdown” of the ICE campaign in the twin cities, because it had “accomplished its mission”. But he added that there would be no change in the enforcement policy. ICE is preparing to bring its terror campaign to other cities and towns. It plans to spend 38 billion dollars to buy giant warehouses and convert them into additional detention centers. Meanwhile the Democratic politicians held press conferences and filed lawsuits and sent out their police to protect ICE from the demonstrators.

On January 23 a day of action was organized in the twin cities which was billed as “a general strike”. But the strike, while celebrated, was far from general. In fact, in all the companies in the area that employ a large number of workers it was business as usual. The trade unions said they were sympathetic to the movement but opposed striking, because it was forbidden by their contract. This illustrates the weakness of the working class struggle in the US. The victims of the ICE assault are working families, and so are the vast majority of those fighting against it. But they don’t fight using the very weapons that make the working class potentially so strong. A real general strike is what is needed to stop ICE.

Still, the degree of solidarity with the victims of the state’s attack was and still is impressive. It’s a slap in face of Trump whose authority, already battered by scandals and discontent over the high cost of living, seems significantly diminished. At this time, it seems likely that the Congressional elections in November will result in a resounding Democratic victory. But that would not be a victory for the working class. The Democrats, like their kindred spirits in Europe, have a different strategy than the Trumpists but their goal, subduing the working class and prepare for war, is the same. The masks must fall.

The Democrats are no alternative

The Democrats do not oppose ICE, they want its agents to be better trained and wear body cams when they do their dirty work. They want a velvet glove on the iron fist, like when Obama was the president. He earned the nickname “Deporter in Chief” because his government deported more undocumented immigrants than any president before – close to three million. The Democratic president expanded ICE, ordered the construction of detention camps, hired for profit companies to run them, contracted the Silicon Valley spyware company Pallentir to work with ICE. On the other hand, the modern president who legalized the greatest number of immigrants was Reagan, a Republican. It doesn’t depend on the party but on the circumstances. World capitalism in its present phase of intensifying destruction induces ever more people in the poorer countries to flee in order to escape violence, hunger and lack of opportunity. That is a reality that is the product of a system of which both Democrats and Republicans are agents. The exodus may go up or down depending on the economic conjuncture but it will no go away. The mass of people that are superfluous for Capital is a growing burden for the system. In that light it’s not surprising that the Trump administration imposed drastic cuts in foreign aid and that European governments followed its example, which will result in many millions of deaths.iv But US Capital also needs undocumented labor so neither party wants to get rid of it. Instead they want to manage it, turn the faucet open or closed depending on Capital’s needs and the propagandistic demands of their own political marketing strategies. These strategies differ. For the Democrats the democratic mystification – the idea that the country is owned by its citizens of all races who rule it together by participating in the democratic system – is crucial. It may be a more potent tool to unify the nation and thereby prepare it for war than Trump’s fear mongering approach. So while the latter spotlights the brutality of immigrant crackdowns, the former covers them with the cloak of multicultural patriotic love. But the goal is essentially the same. In foreign policy too, the Democrats share the goal of war preparation. They too want massive military spending and are even more aggressive than their Republican counterparts on waging economic war against China.

Yet the Democrats seem different. So different that at the height of the tension in Minnesota there was talk in mainstream media about the possibility of a new civil war. But that possibility simply does not exist. Despite appearances, the Democrats and Republicans have much more in common than what divides them. Right now the Democrats’ popularity is rising. All they have to do for that is not be Trump. One of the worst effects of Trumpism is that, by contrast, it gives new credibility to worn-out mystifications. It could be a Democratic president who leads the country, in renewed unity and once again proud to be a nation of immigrants, to war.

Sanderr

2/14/2026

i More on that in: https://internationalistperspective.org/staging/3363/capitalism-crisis-and-war/ . But regardless of the obstacles, an accidental start of global war cannot be excluded entirely. During the cold war this almost happened twice. According to experts, the integration of AI in military launching systems increases the possibility.

ii This claim was made by Noel Casler who worked closely with Trump on the TV-show “The Apprentice” and by the actor Tom Arnold. Trump denies it but has not sued Casler.

iii Among the many overviews of the events we found these interesting: https://illwill.com/lies and https://wildcat-www.de/en/current/e_a127_chinga.html

iv Global humanitarian aid decreased from 2022 to 2025 with 60%. According to experts, the US cuts alone result in 500.000 to 700.000 additional deaths per year.

Anti-ICE barricade in Minneapolis

Where are We Now?

The following text was written by Marlowe for discussion at the internationalist meeting in Brussels 2023 where “the periodisation of capitalism’ was the theoretical subject on the agenda. It is followed by a shorter text that addresses the periodisation question specifically.

The main text has two parts. In the first, Marlowe traces out the trajectory of capitalism over the past couple of hundred years and describes how capitalism has got to where it is today, emphasizing the interaction between economic, technological, social and political developments. In the second, he sketches the history of the working class struggle in the same period. He points out that there has now been over a century of onslaught on the working class without a revolutionary response. There is no organic continuity with the past revolutionary wave, the working class has to relearn everything from scratch. On today’s social protest movements he states that they contain many workers but are not led by the working class. It is imperative that the proletariat should see itself as a class and not be drowned in the wider population.

In the discussion, some comrades criticized the text for not focusing the analysis more on the impact of the deep penetration of the value form, not only in the production process but in the whole of society, transforming the conditions of capital accumulation and eroding class consciousness. Marlowe replied that there is a danger in fixating on the value-form almost to the exclusion of all else. Production does not exist in isolation, he argued, social and political developments, their interactions and effect on the production process, must be taken into account, which IP has not done enough.

It is true that there is not one correct analysis of history that invalidates all others. Our understanding of the trajectory of capital and the conditions for revolution today can only benefit from looking at it from different angles.

In the second text Marlowe criticizes the use of concepts like ‘progress’ and ‘capitalism’s obsolesence’. He writes: “The question of periodisation should not be reduced to a search for the right numerical measures to date an exact turning point in capitalism’s historic trajectory. Capitalism’s historic trajectory is economic, social and political in character – with its competitive nature punctuating that trajectory with warfare. Its economic activity has never existed in isolation.”

Both these texts feed into ongoing discussions in our group about capitalism’s history and in particular about the evolving role of the state and the obstacles to the development of revolutionary consciousness.

IP

Where are We Now? Capitalism and the Revolutionary Subject

Over the past century world capitalism has expanded enormously, and become more and more deadly – through exploitation, mass murder, pandemics, mass psychoses, and the ongoing destruction of the biosphere. And yet there has been no revolutionary wave to follow that of 1917-23. We have to ask – why not? There isn’t a simple answer to that; indeed, we might not be able today to do much more than suggest contributary factors. But it is essential that revolutionary Marxists preoccupy themselves with the question.

Capitalism’s Trajectory – A Potted History

Capitalism is based on specific relations of production but it is so much more than that; it has become an entire social system, now global – with classes, power relations, social institutions, state organisations, beliefs and ideologies. Furthermore, this phenomenon – capitalism – has a history, an especially turbulent and dynamic one.

By the end of the Napoleonic Wars, industrial capitalism had made its mark on Europe, not least because of its contribution to military production. In different countries, the initial industrialisation varied according to circumstances. In England, for example, the initial focus was in textiles where profits were most attractive and which were linked to the global network set up by centuries of mercantile capitalist development. The technologies of production were spread to other countries by sales of the material means or by knowledge transfer. The amassing of the necessary appropriate workforce came substantially from the proletarianization of erstwhile agricultural workers and from the displacement of artisanal manufacture. At the point of production, Marx analysed the determination of value by labour time and highlighted the transition from the formal to the real domination of capital over labour as capitalism developed. His analysis of this move to the extraction of relative surplus value developed into what he termed the coercive law of competition. But production does not exist in isolation; it is intertwined with all parts of society and the coercive law of competition permeates all institutions of capitalist society – local, national and international – and manifests itself as greater or lesser antagonisms between them – as well as generating brutal social consequences for the proletariat and the rest of society. So the analysis of the historical trajectory of capitalism must involve – along with the development of productive forces – the ramifications for the economic, social and political aspects of life, their interactions and their effect on those productive forces.

Capitalism did not begin in a vacuum, but in a European world of largely monarchical states and statelets, and including several large empires. These entities had histories of rivalries over land, raw materials and other sources of wealth – all of which contributed to their power. What capitalism brought into play was a new source of wealth based on the production of value. The growth of this industrial bourgeoisie generated a political struggle as a class with the established classes, particularly with the owners of land – landlords and, ultimately, with aristocracies and monarchs. The 19th Century was witness to the development of the bourgeoisie and its institutions sloughing off the integuments inherited from the anciens regimes. It was a bloody process. And along with the development of capitalist production came the formation of nation states, the framework for the structure of bourgeois political power and its management of populations. Within the nations, the bourgeoisie reconstructed the state apparatuses and between the nation states permanent lines of contact were set up (a feature of international relations following the Congress of Vienna). The development of capitalist economies within nation-states was closely related to the mercantile trade networks set up over the previous centuries. The example for other nations to follow was that of England/UK (which had become the master of the seas with colonies across the world; this led to a dash by European powers for colonies through the Century, leading to conflicts between them. A first attempt at mitigating general antagonisms through agreements took place at the Conference of Berlin (1874).

The capitalist states – in the course of establishing ascendance and displacement over previous state manifestations – demonstrated several noteworthy characteristics. Among them, the assertion of state authority over narrower private interests. Two examples were: the takeover of the East India Company by the UK state (1874) and the establishment of the British Raj; the takeover by the Belgian state of Leopold II’s personal union Congo Free State in 1908. Another aspect of the states’ growth and penetration into civil society was the (often covert) assimilation of workers’ organisations (trade unions) into its structures – and interests; the extent of the states’ success was shown in the mobilisations for war in 1914. From then on the role of the state in every nation grew to the point where we can talk of state capitalism as a universal tendency – although with different component functional and ideological structures as, for example, we see in the 20th Century histories of the US and China.

Often neglected in descriptions of capitalism’s trajectory is the role of fuel availability in the development of industrial production. Wind and water power quickly became insufficient and coal became the source of energy to drive industrialisation and had a direct impact on where the industrialisation took place. However, during the latter half of the 19th Century oil technology and production strove to replace coal – and became an important factor in determining military capabilities. Also important was the role it was to take as an axis in 20th Century geopolitics.

The outbreak of World War in 1914 was a culmination of several linked processes in what was by then a global capitalism including: the competitive law of coercion and the consequent antagonisms it generated, the strengthening of states’ roles in national economies and in social life, and all within the constant threat of crises of overproduction. This threat – which had actually been experienced in local contexts many times – had become a permanent threat at a global level to what was now a world economic system. This culmination brought the economic and military rivalries into the First World War; dozens of countries entered the fray and its conclusion brought the world into a period of disarray.

* * *

The 20th Century brought profound reconfigurations in capitalism. The period between 1914 and 1945 included two global conflagrations, and profound economic and social crises; again the threat of global overproduction was addressed through a Second World War – this time the prime antagonist concerned with overproduction was the US and its target was Germany. Other participants in the war , with substantial rivalries and antagonisms included the UK, Russia, Japan and China. The post-1945 period brought the US-Russia military antagonism to centre-stage. Subsequently, the post-war economic developments were steered by the military-economic needs of the two blocs (such as the American Marshall Plan), lasting until the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The Bretton Woods Agreement brought key financial aspects of the world economy into a web of international institutions and arrangements under American domination. It included an arrangement for currency convertibility and the determination of the value of the US dollar against gold. The US held about 70% of the world’s gold reserves in 1947 yet, after years of post-1945 warfare, it became the world’s largest debtor; in 1971 the US came off the gold standard and converted the dollar into a fiat currency. Although this was a landmark in the decline of key elements of Bretton Woods, the international financial and trade management institutions have remained; they continued to be useful tools for international capitalism – and in large measure by the US to inflict its interests on much of the world.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 triggered a whole new global restructuring of many economic, military and political aspects of capitalism. It heightened the hubris of the American state which then set about pushing NATO’s European borders eastwards and striving for greater control over the oil supplies from the Middle East. Western businesses went on an asset-stripping trip in Russia, one which also generated a new crop of especially wealthy home-grown capitalists there and elsewhere in Eastern Europe. The collapse also helped stimulate the weakening of autarkic policies in India – to abandon the Licence Raj – and in China – to follow ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’.

The global financial system also underwent massive changes. The abandonment of capital movement restrictions, the maturation of the offshore financial jurisdictions, and the immense technological development of global electronic communications systems ramped up the ability of capitalism to grow – and to mitigate tendencies to overproduction. Furthermore, the opening up of Chinese and Indian (and many other) manufactures offered western industry an outsourcing of production to lower-cost regions of the world. The decade was a turning point for many aspects of capitalism. There was also ongoing developments in the role of money through the new technologies: it could now be used to project soft power internationally by countries which either did not have the means to transmit hard power or to assist the build-up of the economic and military power of those with the resources to do it. Saudi Arabia was in the first category and China in the second. All countries are tied together through the global financial system which is still largely American-dominated. Since 1945 it has held up, though it has had many national and some international crises, the most substantial being that of 2008.

It was not long before reactions to ‘the end of history’ worked their ways through. The 2000s revealed several turning points. The 9/11 attacks from Saudi jihadists provided an opportunity for the US and other western powers under the cover of the ‘War against Terror’ to launch invasions and build up their military presence in the Middle East and North Africa. As Greenspan said, it was about the oil. The 20-year war against terror inflicted $7 trillion dollars-worth of murderous onslaught on the world. Political and economic conditions in Russia enabled the reinforcement of authoritarianism under Putin who has promoted Russian military reaction to the West in Georgia, Syria and, especially, Ukraine. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China is building a global network of economic clients (including in the Middle East, Africa and South America) and military bases in strategically important areas (as round the Horn of Africa); it threatens penetration of Western electronic infrastructures and is overtly posing a challenge to American and other capabilities in the Indo-Pacific areas. The recent rapprochement between China and Russia is a direct challenge to Western military-economic interests.

Allies and adversaries are not mutually exclusive in the bourgeois world. While being solid members of NATO, the UK financial industry continues to welcome Russian money and German manufacture its oil and gas. Turkey and Greece have gone to war while both were members of NATO. Today, Turkey and Hungary play both European and Russian sides. Sometime allies become adversaries – such as Japan in WW1 and WW2; sometimes adversaries become allies – as with Russia and China today. Middle East oil producers were securely in the Western orbit; now they are not. Binding countries together through trade does not stop them going to war; it wasn’t true in 1914 and it’s not true today. At present, many regimes are playing the field so we can’t predict what, if any, new configurations will emerge outside of the very long term alliances – or what fractures will happen.

* * *

The worlds of the 19th Century and the 20th (and the 21st) were very different. Capitalism has always been brutal and war has been endemic to its development from its beginnings. However, since 1914 the anti-social nature of the system has reached scales that would have been inconceivable to revolutionaries in the 19th Century: two world wars, and incessant warfare outside them have murdered hundreds of millions; exploitation, whether in times of economic expansion or economic crisis has immiserated hundreds of millions more; the ejection into destitution of people who cannot be absorbed into the production process; and the mass production of waves of migration as people try to get away from the epidemic of violence, often falling victim to people and sex traffickers. And all the while destroying the environment in which all living creatures must survive. This is truly the drive to a death world. Barbarism.

* * *

The Revolutionary Subject

We have traced out, in a very rough way, the trajectory of capitalism over the past couple of hundred years and described how capitalism has got to where it is today. Along that trajectory, the revolutionary subject, the proletariat, has expressed itself episodically. Early in the industrial revolution, the Radical War in Scotland (1820), the Merthyr Rising (1831), the Silesian weavers (1844) all showed the combativity of workers – not only at their places of work but also on broader political terrain such as to repeal the corn laws and to support Chartism. The working class struggle they witnessed had a profound effect on both Marx and Engels. Their spectre haunting Europe, the movement towards communism, described in the Manifesto published early in 1848 was given bodily form later that year in the class struggles in France.

All through the 19th Century, workers struggled not only to improve their lot at the point of production but also for improvement politically, in the national societies to which they belonged. But herein alongside advancement lay a trap: the institutions where they saw the bourgeoisie’s political power lie – in parliaments – were being undermined by capitalism’s development and the strengthening of the state. The political lesson following the Paris Commune showed that the state cannot be taken over by the working class. The mass strikes in Russia in the aftermath of the Russo-Japanese War in 1905 showed how practically the class could respond, and in 1917 the workers’ councils put organisational structure onto the revolutionary process. Nonetheless, the revolutionary wave of 1917-23 was defeated not only by attacks from the world bourgeoisie but also by a disintegration from within due to the pernicious effects of statification: the latter was strikingly evident in Russia where the Bolshevik Party was integrated into the state apparatus and the independent workers’ councils destroyed. These were all signs of the strengthening tendency towards state capitalism. There has been no revolutionary resurgence since then, and the increasing political power of the ruling class showed itself in the social mobilisation for the Second World War.

In its aftermath there were many popular revolts such as in Germany and Hungary in the 1950s. Then after 1968 there were many strike waves with popular support in Western Europe – especially in France, Italy and the UK, waves which went on into the 1970s and ‘80s. Although there were signs of limited self-organisation none developed revolutionary structures; of course, revolutionary structures can only exist in struggle outside of which the vampire state sucks the life out of any residue.

It’s as if capitalism’s growth, its scale and its overt power have been too daunting. Which has allowed the ruling class to continue its onslaughts on the populations of all countries – whether through the War on Terror or the Great Recession, the commodification of more and more aspects of social and personal life (as with the opioid epidemic). Plain, old-fashioned brutality is widespread – such as against the Rohingya or the Uighurs, or in Congo – with the violence now having displaced over 100 million people.

Nonetheless, there have been many popular movements against oppression in the last decade: the Arab Spring, Indignados, Occupy Movement, Gilets Jaunes, Hong Kong resistance; demonstrations in Argentina or Venezuela or Turkey, or Zimbabwe or South Africa over corruption and the poverty and destitution it brings; in Iran over the attacks of the state on women. Scarcely any part of the world has been unaffected by struggle against governments. There has also been a remarkable simultaneity in this resistance, partly due to the speed of modern communications including the near-universally available social media. These movements have included widespread gestures of solidarity – such as over racist murders in the US, with the demonstrations over George Floyd’s murder going global.

What do we make of all this?

* * *

The source of the capitalist system’s economic problems – the threat of overproduction that results from the manner in which surplus value is extracted from the proletariat – remains. Indeed, much of recent technological developments has been used to mitigate or delay destructiveness of that threat, but mitigation may be ineffective and, anyway, is not elimination.

Marx’s coercive law has worked into all areas of bourgeois society and cannot but generate antagonisms between its factions. From this comes the drive to disrupt and corrode all aspects of social life, not least of which are the destruction of the environment and mobilisations for war.

For more than 150 years, the state apparatuses of capital have stood against the interests of the working class. No matter, whether democratic or totalitarian, the state cannot be used by the proletariat.

The challenges the proletariat faces today are in some respects the same as they always were. But, although ruling class ideology has always been full of half-truths and lies, the ideological barrage today is unremitting and its effects have been made worse by the universal availability – mainly through television and social media – of nationalist, democratic, authoritarian, xenophobic, religious – often contradictory – messages generated by state and market needs. The result is disorientation and confusion among populations in general and the working class specifically. The identity of the proletariat is a primary target; and hence the widespread campaigns on identity today focus on individuality so as to undermine sociality.

There has now been over a century of onslaught on the working class without a revolutionary response. There is no organic continuity with the past revolutionary wave as there are no participants alive today meaning that the working class has to relearn everything from scratch – and in circumstances very different from the past. What is missing are workers’ own organisations – yet in a world in which they cannot have permanent organisations, this can only be in struggle. They can’t develop by accretion, gradually. Not only must they arise out of the struggle, they will disappear incipiently, unfinished.

In recent months there have been massive demonstrations in France; the largest popular demonstration ever has taken place in India. In China there was an explosive reaction to the Covid lockdown. There have been huge protests at the treatment of women in Iran, at the banks and government in Lebanon, and widespread demonstrations over the destruction of the environment. These popular movements contain many workers, but they are not led by the working class. It is imperative that the proletariat should see itself as a class and not be drowned in the wider population. In this regard, the massive strike wave in the UK that has gone on for nearly a year is certainly composed of workers, but has been corralled ideologically by unionism – despite union membership having fallen substantially over past decades. This struggle in the UK has not had major confrontations with the forces of the state – as, say with the massive combative struggles in the 1980s – and highlights how powerful are the ideological forces standing in the way of the proletariat.

It has long been said that the working class has only two things going for it: its consciousness and its capacity for self-organisation. Today’s situation only emphasises the fundamental need for both.We have to ask: how is this to be done?

Marlowe

16 May 2023

Remarks for the Periodisation Discussion at the Brussels Meeting

Note: the text contains references to texts of other participants in the Brussels meeting, Link and Mcl.

Commonly, some well-known quotes from Marx are used to open up statements on the periodisation of capitalism such as: “From forms of development of the productive forces these relations [of production] turn into their fetters. Then begins an era of social revolution. … No social order is ever destroyed before all the productive forces for which it is sufficient have been developed …” As Link points out, from this the conclusion is drawn that “… capitalist decadence consists in the productive forces being fettered…” We need to be blunt. The eloquent summary Marx gives of his guiding principle in the Preface to the Contribution to a Critique of Political Economy is wrong and has been clearly invalidated by the actual economic experience of the 20th Century. Furthermore, Marx never gave any concrete evidence for his claim concerning the ‘sufficiency’ (to use Marx’s term) of a social order to develop productive forces in pre-capitalist societies.

One of the concepts which was common in Marx’s day and which has been absorbed into the contemporary periodisation discussion is the notion of progress. This concept (of relatively recent historical origin) became associated strongly in the 19th Century with the development of capitalism’s productive forces whose growth was unparalleled. Tying this association to Marx’s ideas has generated a fog around historical developments and their interpretations; the use of the term ‘historic mission’ is a source of theoretical ambiguity as it flirts with determinism and teleology. Within a discussion of progress today it is almost inevitable that obsolescence should also be introduced; But what does this mean? Capitalism is not obsolescent in the eyes of the bourgeoisie who strive to maintain it tooth and nail. Neither is it obsolescent to the proletariat – on the contrary, capital is its active, deadly enemy despite being its creator. The fate of humanity is in the hands of the proletariat – as the only actor potentially capable of releasing it from capital’s relentless pursuit of value.

Where does the real domination of capital lie in this? Marx describes the taking-over by capitalist production of industry after industry where only formal subsumption prevailed until – through technological developments – the production is done for production’s sake, on a social scale shedding its individual character. This ongoing process resulted in the real domination of capital in those industries. Historically, this process reached a stage where we can say that capitalism as a whole had taken on the social and global character of real domination – even if there were swathes of small-scale producers who were not individually participating in that characteristic. Such producers, such as millions of peasant producers in India or Africa or China, were nonetheless constrained by the world market of capitalist production and economically imprisoned by its characteristic of real domination. This gave the lie to the Third Worldists who argued for alternative routes to development. And because of real domination, capitalism has created a death world. Barbarism indeed.

Marx’s analysis of capitalism – not completed – was contained in a very large body of work, and not just on the pages of Capital. His writings on the actual conflicts between ruling classes and the struggle of the proletariat all have to be taken on board without fixating on the value-form almost to the exclusion of all else. Only five years after the publication of Capital, Marx analysed the Civil War in France and the Paris Commune for the General Council of the International without reference to the value-form.. Was this a mistake? I don’t think so; capitalism operates at many interacting levels.

It seems that for some Marxists today questions concerning the development of capitalism can and should be reduced to quantitative measurements only – as Mcl does in his text. I therefore go along with Link, who says: “I do not see that numerical or economistic measurements of accumulation, rate of profit or exploitation are sufficient to define the periods of ascendant capitalism nor its decline.” Furthermore, the actual choice of measures – with little from the 19th Century – also need justification. The expansion of the capitalist economy in the 19th Century makes it difficult to measure the actual state of the global capitalist system at any given point. If anyone using national measures as proxy for the whole system then this substitution requires justification.

In IP’s reference text, point 24 says: “But to explain why World War I happened when it did, as well as how it developed, a great number of factors have to be taken into account, including the weight of the past on the capitalist class, of an entire history in which economic gains and territorial conquest went hand in hand, of the successes of protectionism which reinforced the idea that state power was the key to market expansion. Other contingent factors played a role. However, instead of seeing those as competing explanations, we should look at how these factors interacted within the context of a slowly building need to devalorize, caused by the maturation of the contradictions of the value- form.” The “great number of factors” must be considered in depth to get an overall picture.

(How has this trend to drop historical and political dimensions to periodisation come about? It may be because of an over-influence of academic Marxism in which the revolutionary subject has no real role – which leaves discussion on an abstract terrain. But that’s only a speculation.)

The question of periodisation should not be reduced to a search for the right numerical measures to date an exact turning point in capitalism’s historic trajectory. Capitalism’s historic trajectory is economic, social and political in character – with its competitive nature punctuating that trajectory with warfare. Its economic activity has never existed in isolation. And Marx never thought so.

Marlowe

16 May 2023

IT ALL FITS TOGETHER

WARS IN THE MIDDLE EAST (1)

After more than a decade of bloody conflict in which more than 600.000 people were killed and more than 14 million were forced to flee their homes, the Syrian ‘civil’ war seemed to have settled in a stalemate and a de facto partition of the country. And yet, only a little push was needed to topple Assad.

The government forces refused to fight. Everywhere the rebels came, there was little or no resistance, everywhere they were greeted by jubilant masses cheering the downfall of the hated regime.

But the rapid collapse of the Assad regime was not the result of a mass strike or popular revolt. The push came from outside, which underscores the interimperialist nature of the current wars in the Middle East. The conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria are all connected. While the trigger was pulled by the weaker side (as it often is), it’s now clear that the string of conflicts has considerably strengthened the grip of the US and its allies on this strategically essential region. Whether that was the US’ plan all along or whether it exploited conflicts that others set in motion, we cannot tell but in essence, it makes no difference. The results are the same.

The war in Ukraine was also a factor. Assad’s ally Russia could have launched an air campaign against the Syrian rebels but that would have diverted military resources from the war in Ukraine at a crucial moment – now that “peace’negociations seem to be approaching – and the results would have been uncertain at best. Putin might have seen it as a trap of the West to weaken the Russian position in Ukraine and choose not to fall in it. He had, in chess terms, to give up a bishop to protect his queen.

Hezbollah, a crucial mainstay of the regime, had to withdrew its troops in Syria to deploy them against the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, while its bases in Syria were bombed to smithereens. Iran also had little choice but to withdraw its troops from Syria, once it was clear that Russia wasn’t going to try to save the regime.

So, while the turn of events was surprising, perhaps we should have seen it coming. Every step led to the next one. The brutal destruction of Gaza, the crushing of Hamas, the missile attacks and assassinations in Lebanon and Iran, showing that Israel can strike anyone and anything anywhere in the Middle East while the US and UK assure that any attempt at retaliation remains futile, the invasion and terrorizing of Lebanon, the defeat of Hezbollah and now the toppling of Iran’s ally Assad: it all fits together.

The “axis of resistance” is gone. Iran, the main challenger to American domination of the Middle East, is forced into a defensive position and can do little more than accelerate its nuclear program (even though the chances are high that its installations would be bombed once it would start – or even be able to start- to produce nuclear weapons). For now, it seems unlikely that the other challengers to American hegemony, Russia and China, can do anything about it. US imperialism scored a big win.

The whole set of conflicts was a demonstration of its overwhelming military power and willingness to use it. Israel had its own imperialist interests but it also acted as an agent of the US and its European allies, who kept the flow of arms going which enabled the IDF’s massacres and who protected Israel from retaliatory attacks. Meanwhile, in the diplomatic theater, Israel and the US played the usual good cop – bad cop routine.

The reason why it’s such a big win is fossil fuel. If capitalism would be moving to a clean energy economy, the vast oil and gas reserves of the Middle East would be of diminishing importance but the opposite is true. The world economy needs ever more energy to grow and because it is capitalist, it needs to grow in order not to collapse. In 2004, the world consumed 12.5 billion tons of oil equivalent (TOE), in 2014 13.6 billion TOE and in 2024, global energy consumption is projected to reach 15.3 billion TOE. And of that growing total, the part of fossil fuel keeps rising: In 2014, the world consumed 80.91% of its total energy from fossil fuels and by 2024 this figure has risen to 82.5%. This shows not only that the greening of capitalism is a myth but also that the importance of the Middle East is greater than ever on the inter-imperialist chessboard. Not only the economies but also the war machines consume ever more fossil fuel. If the present tendency towards mounting inter-imperialist confrontation would lead to a global war between opposing blocs, whoever would control the Middle East would have a clear advantage.

The demonstration of US/Israeli military dominance comes right on time for the new (old) US president. It fits his agenda and style, which both on the international and domestic front is based on the projection of power and intimidation.

Of course, the domestic situation played a decisive role in the demise of Assad as well. The vast majority of the population hated his government. But that was nothing new. What was new was a major shift in the balance of forces in the region. Yet the fact that Assad was so easily toppled shows, once again, the vulnerability of governments that rely solely on state violence to cling to power. Assad had no ideological grip on the population and was incapable to halt or even slow the deterioration of its conditions of survival. The Syrian economy was in the doldrums and the part controlled by the government was worst off, in part because of the sanctions imposed by the West. Inflation and unemployment grew rapidly. The regime’s purpose of the murder of the thousands of civilians whose mass graves are now discovered was to sow fear, to cower the population into submission, but it was made possible by the great number of people for whom there was no room in the shrinking economy. They could be killed because they were not needed. Like Gazans and many millions more who have no value for capital.

And now, many Syrians who have fled are returning. They find their land devastated, their cities in ruins, scarce resources and conflicts over them. The country remains a vipers nest. The state is weak and disorganized which leaves room for big and small players to conquer and rule. Israel, which kept bombing Syria even after Assad was gone, has added a swath of land to the part of Syria it annexed in 1967. Turkey also occupies a part of Syria and wants to attack the part controlled by the Kurdish YPG (“Rojava”) but the Kurdish army is an ally of the US which has a military base in the area. Russia still has its naval and air force bases on the Syrian north coast and will not give those up easily. Then there are the remnants of the toppled regime, the remnants of Isis, and all the militias, armies and factions that were formed during the ‘civil’ war, some loosely allied with the new government, some against it, some allied with outside powers like Turkey and Qatar, all using the existing religious differences to stoke division and carve out a piece of the pie for themselves. Ahmed al-Sharaa (Muhammad Al-Jawlani), the leader of the new government (ex-Al Qaeda, ex-Isis) received a media make-over from dangerous terrorist with a price on his head to heroic liberator and is now supposed to lead Syria on a path to reconciliation and reconstruction. It doesn’t look good.

The new leader before his make-over

Of course we’re glad that the Assad regime has fallen but the joy may not last very long. Peace and prosperity will not return to the region any time soon. For the working class in Syria, the bulk of the population, it is now essential not to be divided by the religious and other sectarian fault lines used to bind them to various factions of capital, and instead to fight autonomously for their class interests, against war and exploitation, for a better life. And why not believe that there may come a day when proletarians in other countries do the same, in the Middle East, in all parts of the world: fight against war and exploitation, for a better life, and refuse to be divided by national, religious, racial and other imposed fault lines. It seems utopian, especially in the Middle East. Yet the need becomes clearer by the day. Capitalism drags the world towards an environmental holocaust, towards impoverishment and global war. But what is missing is confidence in the possibility of a different world, a human community. We feel powerless. By “we” we mean the ordinary people whose labor reproduces society, who make the world go round and who want nothing more than an end to war and exploitation, a better life for all, yes but… we don’t believe yet that it is possible. It is a matter of consciousness: potentially we are so much more powerful than we realize.

December 31

INTERNATIONALIST PERSPECTIVE

* * * *

Like probably most of those who read this, we in IP have followed these events closely, trying to understand what is happening. We realize it is complicated, many factors intermingle. We have our differences on how to interpret the events and have debated those openly. We want to continue this discussion with a series of articles on the wars in the Middle East, of which the text above is the first installment. The debate we had earlier centered on the question whether capitalism’s need to manage, including liquidate, surplus proletarians, which it increasingly produces as more labor power is being banned from the ever more technological global production process and cannot be profitably exploited, was a driving force of the war. However, both sides agreed that the systemic crisis of capitalism intensifies inter-imperialist conflicts and that this explains the broader “logic” of the war escalation. The next two texts are written by comrades who are not part of the IP group but who share many if not most of its positions. We do however disagree with some of their views, as we will make clear in the introductions, but they both add interesting elements to our understanding of the period. So let the debate continue.

IP

Together against capitalist wars and capitalist peace!

From 20 to 26 May 2024, groups and individuals from different parts of the world will meet in Prague to coordinate anti-war activities, as part of a Week of Action which will include an anti-war congress from Friday 24 to Sunday 26 May. Internationalist Perspective supports and will participate in this pro-revolutionary event.

The organizers state:

We consider it necessary, in the process of resistance to war, to develop an anti-capitalist practice which seeks to preserve political autonomy. In concrete terms, this means that we want to organize outside the political parties, outside the structures of the states, and against all states. We are particularly interested in the ways how we can oppose all the harsh conditions to which we have been exposed and subjected during interstate wars and capitalist peace. We are interested in ways to sabotage wars, how to deprive our enemies of resources, how to undermine the ability of states and their armies to continue wars.

Which way to go and what is to be done? How to join forces and get organized? We will look for answers based on class, not national differentiation; answers that take into account the sheer contradiction between rank-and-file soldiers and officers, between wage laborers and bosses, between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie. We will look for ways to make soldiers in uniform of any state army identify themselves with the social struggle of their brothers and sisters on the other side of the front line, and not in the murderous orders of their officers. We will also look for ways to oppose false friends, all those who seek to transform the class struggle into a national or religious struggle for a new state, a new capitalist space, better adapted to their needs.

Which way to go and what is to be done? How to join forces and get organized? We will look for answers based on class, not national differentiation; answers that take into account the sheer contradiction between rank-and-file soldiers and officers, between wage laborers and bosses, between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie. We will look for ways to make soldiers in uniform of any state army identify themselves with the social struggle of their brothers and sisters on the other side of the front line, and not in the murderous orders of their officers. We will also look for ways to oppose false friends, all those who seek to transform the class struggle into a national or religious struggle for a new state, a new capitalist space, better adapted to their needs.

We support the internationalist community affirming the struggle against the bourgeoisie of all warring sides, against the armies of all states, against the capitalists of each country. Current manifestations of resistance, however contradictory and fragmented they are, undoubtedly contain the seeds of a social polarization that can turn wars between states into class confrontation.
What is meant is the confrontation between the defenders of the nation, the states and capitalism on the one hand, and the social class on the other, which is beginning to realize that defending the nation to which it is bound in chains only serves the interests of those who exploit it.

Direct action against wars now takes various forms, more or less targeted, more or less organized. Let’s strive for a qualitative shift whereby individual acts of resistance break out of their isolation through interconnection and coordination. The common enemy in every epoch is, first of all, capitalism, and therefore every state that structures it, the army that defends it, the bourgeoisie that embodies it. The only way out of the nightmare of capitalist wars and capitalist peace is a collective awakening: we must see and sabotage the whole machinery of war, overthrow its representatives and reclaim our power as creators of the world.

We call on groups and individuals interested in participating in the anti-war congress in Prague to contact us well in advance with proposals for the program.

Together against capitalist wars and capitalist peace!

More on this : https://actionweek.noblogs.org

List of participants: https://actionweek.noblogs.org/list-of-participants-at-aw2024/

A debate on the IP-leaflet on Gaza

We recently published a leaflet denouncing the war in Gaza. The intention was to distribute it at demonstrations as a means of engaging participants in discussion. After it was published on our website, it was criticized by some of our members and by others in the milieu for not being clear enough about the fact that the inter-imperialist nature of the war in Gaza is paramount, and that only proletarian class struggle can impede and break the inter-imperialist conflicts and wars endemic to capitalism.

Whereas we agree on these last points, a revision of our leaflet has led to a disagreement centered on the role played by the increasing number of proletariats who have become superfluous to capital, in the unfolding of capitalist crisis and war; and this war in particular.

We believe that it is important to have political debates in the open and the reader may expect more articles on these subjects forthcoming.

In the meantime we publish a string of texts that were produced in the immediate wake of the leaflet. Our hope is that by making available our discussion and openly showing the nature of our debate, others will be encouraged to contribute.

IP

The Gazan Inferno

For revolutionaries, the two most important statements to be made about this butchery are: that this is but the latest murderous eruption of global inter-imperialist antagonisms, and that the only solution for the proletariat is through class struggle. Against these perspectives the recent leaflet, No War in Gaza, published on the Internationalist Perspective website in December is not only sadly wanting but flirts with opportunism by diluting what we have to say to the working class to make it amenable to people we are likely to meet on demonstrations.

* * *

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union 35 years ago, the physiognomy of global imperialism changed considerably. With no substantial rivals, the US – with support from its many acolytes – was able to inflict its so-called ‘War Against Terror’ on the world for 20 years. But rivalries to the US did build – though with novel (and not so novel) dispositions. Russia redeveloped its forces against NATO’s eastern extension, against which it has been militarily active for a decade. China became an economic giant and embarked on a programme to rival American military capability and reach. Several Middle Eastern states have used their massive financial wealth first to globalise their influence and then to become active players in expanded military rivalries (such as in Yemen). The inter-imperialist antagonisms endemic to capitalism in this period operate and intersect at global, regional and local levels; rivalries and alliances are forever shifting as economic and military interests change in the resulting chaos. (That Russian oil has now entered the Pentagon’s supply chain is only one recent example of this.)

While the Israeli state might have its local agenda, the current war with Hamas is in the context of a galaxy of conflicts – along with the bloody wars in Yemen, Sudan, Congo and elsewhere. What is not imperialist about it? That the most recent Gaza conflict was set off just as overt rapprochement between several of the most powerful Arab governments and Israel was imminent is a clue as to the role of regional rivalries centring on Iran; the presence of two American carrier groups and the escalation of hostilities in the Red Sea and the Gulf involving more military forces is another. To reduce this dimension is to veil the global context for the whole proletariat and hides the existential threat it faces.

To argue that this horror show is primarily a manoeuvre by the Israeli government to deal with its uniquely substantial “surplus population” (whatever that is) is vacuous. To highlight the conflict as an “asymmetric war” is to focus on the difference between military capabilities which leftists use to justify support for the ‘lesser evil’. Suppose the asymmetry were to switch – would that make the mass murder any better?

* * *

The leaflet says: “We call for an immediate end to the war, the release of hostages and prisoners, an end to the blockade. We call to build international solidarity against warmongers and nation-builders.”

Who is this leaflet calling on? Capitalist nations and governments? Are they supposed to abandon their interests at our request? To promote the idea that the various factions of capital listen to ‘calls’ is to reinforce illusions promulgated by liberals and leftists. ‘Peace’ demonstrations are inadequate. The Vietnam War did not end because of the demonstrations by millions of people in the US and elsewhere; the 2003 invasion of Iraq was not stopped by the participation of one million people in London in the biggest anti-war demonstration in the UK ever. And the only way that international solidarity can be built is through class struggle; is there any other kind?

The hard reality is that there is no solution for one issue until there is a solution for all – through class struggle. The fact is that imperialists will continue their manoeuvres and continue to murder millions until stopped by a self-conscious proletariat in its class struggle against the capitalist states. That perspective is the only one we can hold out for the working class. In World War II and in World War I, revolutionaries did not call for immediate ends or hostage release or humanitarian aid; they called for the proletariat to turn the imperialist war into a class war. Class struggle against capitalism is the only answer. And there is no short cut.

As revolutionaries we speak to the proletariat of the world – in Gaza and in Israel and everywhere else. We must have at all times clarity about the class terrain.

Marlowe

January 2, 2024

The Role of the “Surplus Population” in Our Analysis

Recently Internationalist Perspective drafted a leaflet on Gaza. The purpose of the leaflet is its distribution in rallies, but after its publication on our website it drew criticism from some voices in our milieu. Some of the critiques have found resonance with a few members of IP. In particular, the question of a “surplus population” has become an important source of contention in our discussions. One member, for instance, has said that in the context of the war in Gaza the “surplus population is irrelevant.” Without wishing to detract from the emphasis on the inter-imperialist nature of the war, it is on the issue of “surplus population” that I would like to make a first contribution to this debate.

***

To begin with, it is impossible to reduce war to one cause. So the existence of a “surplus population” cannot be the cause, let alone the only cause, of war. However, I do not agree that it is an irrelevant factor.

To give a causal explanation of war in capitalism IP has often relied on the idea that a crisis of valorization of value compels capitalism to unleash its destructive forces in order to continue the process of valorization. This explanation has been met with criticism, most recently from one of the participants of the Brussels conference last May. Indeed it seems a bit mechanistic, if not with a touch of fantasy, to suggest that Capitalism somehow sets out to consciously destroy itself so it can continue to produce.

It is true that the methods of making war are intrinsic to capitalism; its tactics and strategies are reflected in economic phenomenon. But war is nonetheless irrational and contradictory, it destroys economy and cannibalizes itself. We must, therefore, interrogate how this irrational and contradictory dimension is harnessed by the state which employs it against the working class in the form of imperialism. It is here, where, in my opinion, an analysis of a “surplus population” can contribute to our overall understanding of the connection between wars and the capitalist mode of production.

As Marx explains, to keep profits growing capitalists are forced to find ways to cut labor costs. In the post-war period this took place through the introduction of new industrial methods which gave rise to Fordism. The draining of the world’s countryside from the 1950s all the way through to the ‘70s provided capitalism with the labor necessary for new waves of industrialization. This industrial expansion meant both the integration of larger numbers of people into the proletariat as well as a growing consumer power of the working class amidst cheap products and rising inflation. But the consumer-footprint which capital’s high productivity output implied, and which increasingly became a structural necessity, was eventually undermined by a tendentially declining rate of profit.

By the ‘80s Fordism was already unable to increase productivity. After the collapse of the Soviet bloc, capitalism’s now permanent crisis was met with waves of “globalization.” This was a period of “social contraction”, which saw, among other things, a shift of capital into de-regulated financial sectors (creating the first global banking crisis), the integration of China into the WTO, and, importantly, the accelerated implementation of new digital technologies into industrial processes. This latter tendency, still underway, provoked an even sharper rise in the organic composition of capital. It is therefore that the new global industrial landscape has taken shape alongside the expulsion of masses of living labor from capital’s automated processes. Those workers who are excluded from capital with no possibility of their re-integration, are forming a greater and greater portion of the collective-worker who can neither be considered a lumpenproletariat nor a reserve-army of labor in the way that Marx had described. This, loosely termed, “surplus population,” is manifested in different ways, such as in the creation of what Mike Davis has described as a “planet of slums” or what the capitalist state calls “an immigration problem.”

Now, to be clear, I would not argue that capitalists have found the “solution” to their “surplus population problem” in war. This would be a misplacement of the role of “surplus population” in analysis. However, I will argue that the presence of a “surplus population” represents a unique condition which acts as an expedient for the way in which the capitalist state steps in to interpret social crises and thus assert its logic amidst the insecurity (and despair) that capitalism creates.

When the state, or a proto-state, acts belligerently, the significant presence of a population which is overwhelmingly excluded from industrial labor (like in Gaza) can become a basis for integrating the collective-worker into forms of nationalism on racial, xenophobic and ethnic grounds. In the absence of proletarian identity such a “surplus population” becomes ideologically susceptible to ethno-nationalist forms of “solidarity”. This is not to say that employed workers are not susceptible; the state also imposes a national identity onto that capital which represent worker’s “security.” However, when people are excluded from capital’s cash-nexus, even the promise of future material security disappears, and with it any possibility of maintaining their identity on a consumer basis. Thus, in the absence of the possibility to form their identity through capital-labor bonds, a “surplus population” turns to the only things that it “owns,” its body, its children, and its past.

I believe that in the context in which a material crisis is also expressed in a crisis of identity, the focus on the body exacerbates the possibility of using biological and semi-biological markers to ideologically divide the working class1. The isolation and desperation that capitalist crisis creates, engenders a longing for community, a pretext in which historical memory can become equated with an irrational and mythologized past. The inclusion of people’s identity in such an imagined communal-past is portrayed, by the state, on the very basis of the exclusion of, and most often an induced hatred for, “the other.” It is in this way that a reactionary understanding of the past becomes the ideological justification for the slaughter of the working class.

With the increasing emergence of a “surplus population,” the formation of ethno-nationalist identities by the racial subjectivation of “the other” has become a central part of capitalist warfare. Moreover, this ideological trait of imperialism (a tactic taken from colonialism), when coupled with new military technology, acts as further grounds for the disappearance of any distinction between soldier and civilian, adult or child, since entire populations can be portrayed as “the enemy” and ultimately treated as such by capital’s destructive forces.

In my opinion, to ignore the role of a “surplus population” in the context of capitalist war is, a. to have an incomplete picture of the causal-conditions in which capitalist war unfolds; and b. to fail to understand war as the most radical form of state-oppression and therefore to interrogate the tactics with which the ruling class subjects the collective-worker to “imperialism” thereby forming significant obstacles to proletarian self-awareness.

Although inter-imperialism represents the framework within which every war should be understood, each conflict is unique in the way in which it engages the working class. And the working class, although it shares a common historical interest, is far from being a monolithic entity. The transmutations in its composition over the last hundred years need to be understood. A key factor in this understanding is the emergence of a “surplus population”. This factor should be integrated into our milieu’s analysis and not dismissed as “vacuous”.

SY

January 5

IN DEFENSE OF THE IP-LEAFLET

After reading Marlowe’s text, I had to reread the leaflet. Does it really deserve this harsh critique? In my opinion, while it is not perfect, it doesn’t.

The leaflet was made for distribution in the large demonstrations against the slaughter going on in Gaza, not for a (non-existent) class-based struggle. The aim was to show that this war is a product of capitalism, to show how its systemic crisis intensifies its inter-imperialist conflicts and makes an ever growing part of humanity superfluous – an unprofitable burden – for capital. Israel is dealing with its surplus-population in ways that show the future capitalism has in store for humanity. The leaflet makes clear that capitalism has only more war and misery to offer and that nationalism always serves its cause. It calls for an end to this war, for an end to capitalism, for international solidarity and the self-organization of the working class. I stand behind that.

As I said, it’s not perfect. Leaflets rarely are. The inter-imperialist context could have been more developed. And in the sentence “We call to build international solidarity against warmongers and nation-builders”, the insertion of ‘working class’ after ‘international’ would have been appropriate. There may be other possibilities to improve the text that we can decide on. It’s a tool that can be sharpened.

But the charge that the leaflet treats the inter-imperialist context as an after-thought is incorrect. Here is what it says on this:

“Everywhere military spending is rising. We are told this is needed as more war may be coming. This is all against the background of a world economy sinking steadily deeper into crisis, from which its managers know no way out — no way out but war. The destabilizing effect of this crisis melts frozen fronts across the world. Opportunities and necessities arise as existing balances of power shift. And like the weapons which must be produced for war, minds must be molded for the same purpose. Our rulers want us to admire soldiers, glorify battlefield victories, wave national flags and be convinced that fighting for justice means supporting one side against the other in inter-imperialist conflicts, which all wars are today. Siding with the nation always means siding with the ruling class of the nation, the managers or would-be managers of its capital.”

There are other passages highlighting the inter-imperialist driving force. What is striking in this one is that it connects the rise of inter-imperialist conflict with the systemic crisis of the capitalist world economy and shows how nationalism of all kinds serves capitalism’s destructive tendency. Marlowe writes, in his first sentence, “that this is but the latest murderous eruption of global inter-imperialist antagonisms”. That is true and yet it’s also more than just the latest eruption: what we witness is an acceleration of capitalism’s death drive in direct relation to the impasse of the global capitalist economy. That is a connection the leaflet makes and Marlowe does not. In his second paragraph he gives a short overview of global imperialism since the end of the USSR without any mention of the building impasse. He gives no reason why, if this is but the latest eruption of what’s been going on for a long time, it is now an existential threat for the whole proletariat which the leaflet supposedly hides.

Marlowe goes out of his way to misinterpret the leaflet. He writes:

“To highlight the conflict as an “asymmetric war” is to focus on the difference between military capabilities which leftists use to justify support for the ‘lesser evil’. Suppose the asymmetry were to switch – would that make the mass murder any better?”

If you read the passage to which he refers2, you see that it states that the two sides are not different, that the difference comes only from the different means at their disposal, none is any better than the other. Exactly the opposite of what Marlowe infers, support for one side.

The leaflet calls for an end to the slaughter and a lot more:

“We call for an immediate end to the war, the release of hostages and prisoners, an end to the blockade. We call to build international solidarity against warmongers and nation-builders. (…) We call for an end to this war, these borders, and all divisions which pit the working class against itself. We call for international solidarity and the self-organization of the working class. We call for real communism: a human community without exploitation, with freedom and dignity for all.”

Admitted, it’s a tall order. But still, that is what we’re calling for. Arguably it could have been formulated better, but in essence, that’s what we’re advocating. Maybe it should have called for more, especially concrete steps, like calling on soldiers on both side to desert, fraternize, attack those who give the orders to kill and destroy. Not with the illusion of having any impact on events in Gaza but to indicate, through the mist of nationalist propaganda, the road forward.

Marlowe objects:

“Who is this leaflet calling on? Capitalist nations and governments? Are they supposed to abandon their interests at our request? To promote the idea that the various factions of capital listen to ‘calls’ is to reinforce illusions promulgated by liberals and leftists.‘Peace’ demonstrations are inadequate. The Vietnam War did not end because of the demonstrations by millions of people in the US and elsewhere”.

It seems clear to me that most of these calls are directed to the working class. When the leaflet calls for “international solidarity against warmongers and nation-builders” and for “the self-organization of the working class”, evidently it is not calling on capitalist nations to realize that. When it calls for an end the war, we join our voices to the millions who are outraged about the mass killing and try to convince some of them what the root of the problem is. Yes, this is a demand on the governments. “Are they supposed to abandon their interests at our request?” Yes, every struggle for demands contains the aim to make capitalists concede, to force it to abandon, to some degree, their interests. True, peace demonstrations are inadequate. Does that mean we have to stay away from them? While they are not class based, there are plenty of proletarians participating in them, some of them eager to hear what we have to say. Why should we not join their demand for an end to the war? It is because we share this demand that we can explain that ending these wars requires ending capitalism, against the nationalists and other reformists that dominate the conversations. The same goes for climate demonstrations and others. Marlowe writes, “The Vietnam War did not end because of the demonstrations by millions of people in the US and elsewhere”. That is a half-truth. They were certainly not the sole cause but they were part of the mix. The US did not lose the war militarily, it withdrew under pressure, in large part domestic pressure in which the demonstrations by millions played a role. It was not just the anti-war demonstrations, it was also the waves of wildcat strikes, the riots in the inner cities, May ‘68 and other revolts in Europe and more. All these occurences influenced each other, stimulated each other which made Washington decide, among other things, to get out of Vietnam. I’m not denying that there were other, geostrategic reasons as well, nor that the US later turned its defeat into a victory, making Vietnam into a useful client. This does not undercut the argument that domestic pressure weighed heavily in its decision to withdraw its troops, effectively ceding South Vietnam to the enemy, losing the war.

Many of the pro-revolutionaries of my generation marched in these demonstrations, joining the call to end the war while at the same time attacking the nationalist and reformist ideologies that permeated them. Like the leaflet does. They denounced the calls to support Ho Chi Min and the Vietcong just like the leaflet denounces support for Hamas. For some of us, these demonstrations were the first step to revolutionary positions.

Marlowe emphasizes “The hard reality is that there is no solution for one issue until there is a solution for all – through class struggle.” He’s right. 3And although the leaflet makes that point at the end, it should have been made stronger, more explicitly. But we should not limit our understanding of class struggle to what happens in the factories. The Russian revolution started with a peace demonstration (for immediate demands).We should not shy away from movements which are interclassist at first but can contain germs of revolutionary potential. They can be places where a questioning begins, where we can intervene, while there may be few others. Unfortunately, the global working class, while not defeated, is neither seizing the initiative; the capitalist class is dictating the events. Otherwise, our call for class struggle to end capitalism would sound less abstract.

Surplus-population

As mentioned before, the global crisis of capitalism, the impasse of its economy, is the context in which to comprehend the present acceleration of interimperialist conflict. What is striking about this crisis is that the attempts to overcome it, while beneficial to some, actually make the impasse deeper. Automation, the concentration of capital, monopolism, the chase for technological rent (surplus profit) all lead to a decline of the general rate of profit, meaning that a growing portion of existing capital assets, constant capital as well as variable capital, becomes unprofitable, and hence superfluous for value accumulation. That means that a lot of companies around the world cannot survive, or survive as ‘zombie companies”, living from loans on borrowed time, or hanging on by a thread by intensifying the exploitation of their workers. It also means that a growing portion of the variable capital, the working class becomes superfluous for capital. That is what we mean by “surplus population”. It exists in every country but especially in the global south, hence the massive attempts to escape from there, despite the huge obstacles. This surplus population cannot be equated with a lumpenproletariat surviving at the margins of society, but neither is it an ‘industrial reserve army’ since there is no perspective of them being integrated in the global capitalist chain of production in a new phase of expansion, which will not come. It represents a problem for capital, a financial burden as well as a political danger, since the survival conditions of the surplus population engender unrest and turmoil and the ideological framework of democratic citizenship based on common consumerism no longer can work to subjectify them. The latter point is not in the leaflet but in a text of SY who also theorizes how capitalism fills this ideological vacuum to fit its war drive. This we can discuss later on.

The crisis widens the gap between highly developed, surplus profit yielding capitals and all the rest, as well as between the parts of the world where the former are concentrated (roughly, western Europe, north America and southeast Asia) and the rest. In the former, the surplus population is still relatively small, in the latter it is enormous and growing fast. It is a peculiarity of Israel that it is a part of the former, the high tech capitalist nations, while at the same time it has to manage a large surplus population. This position is the result of its specific role as bridgehead of American imperialism in the Middle East as well as of the general tendency of capitalism to expel living labor which accelerates in periods of crisis. As MacIntosh put it in “Marxism and the Holocaust” (IP # 49, 2008):

”Capitalism, as Marx shows, `calls to life all the powers of science and nature, as of social combination and of social intercourse, in order to make the creation of wealth independent (relatively) of the labour time employed on it.’46 The result is the tendential ejection of ever-larger masses of labour from the productive process; the creation of a population that from the point of view of capital is superfluous, no longer even potentially necessary to the creation of value, and indeed having become an insuperable burden for capital, a dead weight that it must bear, even at the expense of its profitability. The existence of such a surplus population — at the level of the total capital of a national entity – can create the conditions for mass murder, inserting the extermination of whole groups of people into the very `logic’ of capital, and through the complex interaction of multiple causal chains emerge as the policy of a capitalist state.”

This is not to say that Israel is trying to exterminate the population of Gaza. But with the ongoing killing of tens of thousands, the destruction of now already more than 70% of the habitations, the certaintly that many more Gazans will die from disease-festering conditions, it is a step in that direction.

A comrade asked: If a big surplus population is a problem for Israel, why does it import workers from Russia, Thailand, Philippines, etc.?

These workers come themselves from countries with a growing surplus population for capital. They are there temporarily (most have a 5 year-contract). If they would be replaced with Palestinians, the majority in Gaza and the West Bank would still be living in the shadow economy or surviving by the handouts channeled through the local prison gangs, Hamas and Fatah. Still, it would be cheaper for Israeli capital to hire local Arab workers instead of importing them from afar, despite their low wages. There was a time when many more Palestinians were employed in the Israeli economy. But the policy of the Israeli state, which accelerated in this century, has been to impose separation in order to strengthen the national identity, the Zionist ideology of a pure Jewish community, the acceptance of an extreme militarization of society, the endurance of wars. As Macintosh writes:

“…the identity upon which the pure community is established, necessarily entails the exclusion of those who do not share the common historico-cultural bases of the mass. Those excluded, the Other, racial, ethnic, or religious minorities for example, though they inhabit the same territorial space, become alien elements within the putatively `homogeneous’ world of the pure community.” And: “… that rage against alterity can become one of the bases for a genocidal project directed at the Other, whose very existence is seen and felt to be a mortal danger to the pure community.”

On the other side, that rage against alterity is stoked by Hamas and consorts for the same purpose. Both sides need the separation.

The growth of nationalism, not only in Israel-Palestina but around the world, the sharply increasing hate-mongering against the Others, mostly immigrants, are ominous signs. National identities are forged in these battles. We can see how they serve capitalist interests, the various imperialist designs, the need to curtail the surplus-population (“mowing the grass”, the IDF calls it) but also how on a deeper level, “the imperative of the destruction of both variable capital (living labour) and constant capital (factories, machines, etc.) shapes the very course of decadent capitalism”, as MacIntosh writes. “The immanent tendencies of the capitalist mode of production, which propel it towards a catastrophic economic crisis, also drive it towards mass murder and genocide.” I agree. There is a perverse harmony between the incentives the systemic crisis creates for conquest and conflict and the system’s need for destruction of existing, unprofitable capital to restore the conditions for capital accumulation.

Sanderr

January 8

FURTHER THOUGHTS ON “SURPLUS-POPULATION”

In my earlier contribution to the debate, I emphasized the link between capitalism’s systemic crisis and the current increase in militarisation and war. SY, in his latest paper on this subject, writes: “To give a causal explanation of war in capitalism IP has often relied on the idea that a crisis of valorization of value compels capitalism to unleash its destructive forces in order to continue the process of valorization. (…) it seems a bit mechanistic, if not with a touch of fantasy, to suggest that Capitalism somehow sets out to consciously destroy itself so it can continue to produce.” This seems to suggest that we claim that capitalists wage wars with the conscious aim of destroying value. Generally speaking this is not true, their aim is usualy the opposite, to conquer value (or defend it). We have to make a clear distinction between intent and result.

The fact that the global capitalist system is in crisis 4 means that there is too much existing value in proportion to the creation of new value. Excess of existing value in all its forms: constant capital (excess production capacity), variable capital (excess workers) and financial capital (financial bubbles, growing debt overhang). All these forms of capital can only remain value if they remain engaged in the creation of new value. When that doesn’t happen a devalorisation of existing cap will result. The fact that the cap class has developed state-capitalist means to temper that, or rather to postpone that, or the fact that the most developed capitals can still rake in megaprofits thanks to their competitive advantage, doesn’t change the underlying dynamic, which the capitalist class cannot stop because “Capital itself is the moving contradiction, in that it presses to reduce labour time to a minimum, while it posits labour time, on the other side, as the sole measure and source of wealth […] On the one side […] it calls to life all the powers of science and of nature […] to make the creation of wealth independent (relatively) of the labour time employed on it […] On the other side, it wants to use labour time as the measuring rod for the giant social forces thereby created.” (Marx, Grundrisse)

Left by itself, this dynamic leads to a great unravelling, a deep depression, a sharp conflict between the needs of capitalism and the reproduction of society, a breakdown and, in the worst case for our rulers: proletarian revolution.

It is the fear of that global unravelling, I suspect, that is one of the roots of the current trend in the capitalist class to focus on self-protection from the storm. What that entails in policies is something different for an hegemonic power than for a contender state, but everywhere it goes hand in hand with an ideological effort to intensify community bonds based on a common, idealized past, on common “values”, common language, religion, race etc. Whatever combination is used, and it differs of course from place to place, it’s always that what the exploited have in common with their exploiters and what convinces the former that the interests of the latter are theirs as well. This trend in the ideology of the ruling class, this populist nationalism, responds to the widely felt longing for community in this time of great uncertainty and atomisation, and since this community is as much defined by exclusion as by inclusion, as B.York wrote, it also responds to the need of the ruling class to separate the community from the undesirables, from the surplus-population, and to prepare the working class for conflict with outsiders, to adapt its subjectivity for war.

The crisis intensifies the economic competition, which was never purely economic but which shifts more to military competition when opportunities for valorization dwindle. It therefore intensifies inter-imperialist conflict which has its own rules of escalation that can overpower economic rationality and yet serve the perpetuation of the capitalist system, without that being the conscious purpose.

The war over Ukraine did not flare up because the nations engaged in it wanted to destroy excess capital, unless you count the desire to destroy each other’s armies, which certainly are commodities that are excess capital since they cannot be used to create new value. But the aim was to conquer capital, not to destroy it. However, that’s what the war has done and continues to do.

But because of the difference between constant and variable capital, between dead labor and living human beings, the elimination of the latter can become a conscious purpose of military destruction.

An unused worker isn’t the same as unused machinery. A machine that can’t be used anymore doesn’t need to be kept alive, doesn’t have a family that has needs too, doesn’t cause havoc, doesn’t revolt, can’t be used by imperialist rivals. It ceases to exist, contrary to human beings. When we see ethnic cleansing in Karabakh, Nigeria, Sudan and many other places, mass expulsions in Pakistan, attacks on homeless in America and on dalits in India, the flattening of entire cities in Gaza and a rising tide of hostility all over the world against undocumented immigrants, the official purpose of course never is to get rid of excess variable capital, of surplus-population. But that seems indeed to be the underlying goal, even when it can, for now, only partially be realized. As the IP-leaflet states, it makes you shudder to think what will happen when the crisis deepens, which it will.

So I don’t think the IP-leaflet was wrong in claiming that dealing with the problem of the surplus-population is one of the underlying causal factors of what is happening in Gaza.

SY, in his text, makes another claim: that the surplus-population is important for capitalist war because it can be used for it, because it is supposedly more easily seduced by ethno-nationalist forms of “solidarity” than any other part of the proletariat. His argument, that the surplus-proletariat lacks a proletarian identity because it is excluded from industrial labor, and that, by having no hope of future material security, it also lacks a consumerist identity, and that therefore it is susceptible to embrace a ‘body-based’ xenophobic nationalist identity, seems speculative to me. One could just as well speculate that the surplus-population, because it is in no position to have consumerist illusions, is the part of the proletariat that is best placed to understand that capitalism has nothing to offer and needs to be abolished. Is either speculation something we see confirmed by what is happening? Do populist xenophobic leaders like Trump, Orban and Le Pen get more support from the surplus-population than from other sectors of society? I don’t think so. The entire class is vulnerable to nationalist ideology. The surplus-proletarians are a part of the class, not standing outside of it. It is true that the conditions in the working class, their conditions of survival and of struggle, differ very much. So much that, according to Kurz and other Wert Kritikers, the idea of a unified global struggle on a working class base has become a pipedream. We don’t agree with that and so we emphasize what all these different parts of the collective worker have in common, and the potential of that. To look at the specific conditions of different parts of the proletariat and try to understand how they may aid or hinder capitalist plans, how they may aid or hinder the development of revolutionary consciousness, is absolutely worthwhile, but we need to be careful not to draw hasty conclusions that underestimate the complexity of the questions.

Sanderr 1/16

Class Struggle – The Only Way Forward

The Gaza leaflet lacks class clarity. We have to recognise this and decide what to do about it. So far as I am aware, it has not been distributed as a leaflet and it should not be. 5 Since it has been published on our website I propose that IP also admit that it was politically erroneous and publish a critique and correction. This should be done not only for ourselves but for others in the working class movement who may be grappling with the same issues; we should lead by example.

* * *

In his January 8 text, Sander spends several pages suggesting what the leaflet might have said; I’m not going through it all here, it’s plain to see, but it must be stressed that the problems with the leaflet are not solved by editorial tweaking. To give one example: Sander says that inserting “working class” between ‘international’ and ‘solidarity’ “would have been appropriate.” Appropriate? Not “essential”, or “the heart of the matter”?

Sander also says: “Maybe it should have called for more, especially concrete steps, like calling on soldiers on both side to desert, fraternize, attack those who give the orders to kill and destroy. Not with the illusion of having any impact on events in Gaza but to indicate, through the mist of nationalist propaganda, the road forward.” The problem here is the word, “maybe.” Delete that and we have a real criticism; retain it and it just looks like the writer wants to cover our backsides. It won’t work.

The crux of Sander’s political defence of the leaflet is in his second sentence: “The leaflet was made for distribution in the large demonstrations against the slaughter going on in Gaza, not for a (non-existent) class-based struggle.” This is an appalling argument. Instead of going to demonstrations to argue from our, IP’s, left communist perspectives, the implication is that we should just soft-pedal and capitulate to the surrounding leftist, liberal and other mystifications on ‘peace’ and ‘ceasefire’. And the “(non-existent) class-based struggle”? Instead of pointing to its necessity for the working class to move forward, the class lines of the left communist movement are greyed-out.

* * *

Where did the obsession about ‘surplus population’ come from? An interview with Emilio Minassian apparently. Now, Minassian denies that this is an inter-imperialist war, and asserts that it is an “internal affair” centred round “surplus proletarians.” This interview was taken up in a personal blog, then incorporated into a signed article, ‘Warmongers Left and Right’, from where surplus population has morphed into a position of IP in the Gaza leaflet. Our focus on the situation in Gaza must return to inter-imperialist antagonisms. IP’s focus in general must return to class struggle as the only way forward for the proletariat.

* * *

This leaflet must be corrected publicly

Marlowe

January 19

On Surplus-populations, Subjectivation and the State

In his latest response, Sanderr has challenged my claim that a surplus population is more susceptible to ideology. He says this is speculative. He makes a good point. But I want to clarify that whether the surplus population is more or less “susceptible” to ideology or is more or less “useful” to the capitalist class is not the point I wish to make; the point is that it constitutes an important vector by which the State distributes social subjectivity.

***

Class consciousness only emerges when the working class acts as a class and in the interests of the class. When the state relates to the class through its administrative networks, legal institutions, market identities and even cultural forms such as the family, it divides the class and atomizes it, thereby breaking it up and weakening its possibility to act as a class. Thus the state becomes one of the most formidable obstacles to class action and class consciousness.

Subjectivity relates to individuals but cannot be understood by recourse to individuals. Individuals are ‘caught’ in one ideology or another, one identity or another, but the origin of this identity will always be in social divisions.

Of course immigrants, for instance, are not themselves individually susceptible to ideology in the classic nationalist sense- how could they be?! But they are constituted in the socio-political imaginary as the ‘outsiders’ necessary for the formation of those other nationalist and xenophobic identities. Both identities are mutually constituted; they represent an ideological division of the working class. In this sense, high numbers of excess labor become grounds for a split in social identity.

From the point of view of capital, the working class represents abstract labor. A mass of undifferentiated potential value. In capitalist crisis, a quantitative portion of this abstract labor represents a burden because it cannot valorize itself.

The state does not only perform the function of postponing and tempering de-valorization, as Sanderr says, but performs the active function of differentiating abstract labor into its concrete configurations. The state disciplines, administers, sorts out and socializes labor along productive and re-productive lines. That is, it subjectivates it.

In a moment of crisis, when there is a breakdown between the needs of capital and the reproduction of society, the state finds its highest raison d’être, it steps in to insure a distribution of social functions that will not represent an attack on the system. The state thus intervenes along re-productive lines by bringing the working class into conformity with its hierarchy. It decides who lives, who dies, who lives where, what kinds of resources are available to who, who is allowed to wield violence, who has re-productive capacities over themselves and others, etc.

A key way in which the state performs this social/class division is by subjectivation, by transforming crisis into ideology; interpreting experience by recourse to irrational narratives. In doing so its fabricates ideological justifications for the murder of the working class. The surplus population, as indicator of capital’s crisis, becomes subjectivated by the state which interprets it [as crisis] and gives it an identity within the hierarchical state structures of capitalism. No social identity group (no matter how oppressed) will ever be able to attack the system as a whole; so far as the working class is thus divided so far capital will continue to reign.

An increase in surplus population, in fact, is not unconnected from the rise of populism. As such populism is an indicator of a political instability of the ruling class. But populism cannot overcome the crisis to which it is a response. Yet populist movements represent an opportunity for the state to intervene and reassert itself as a necessary solution. One indicator of the state asserting itself amidst growing crisis is the increasing presence of proto-states which use terror and war as their primary weapon.

War is the truest expression of the State, and its most powerful reinforcement. Just as Capitalism must create Artificial Needs for its increasing Superfluous Commodities, the State must also do the same and continually create Artificial Conflicts of interest requiring its Violent Intervention. –Bureau of Public secrets 1991

SY

January 21

On the Writing of the Gaza Leaflet

I wrote most of the leaflet. I did think the question of surplus population was underdeveloped in the text, and I have not been surprised by the debate that has followed. However, I was surprised by the claims, both internally and externally, of the text’s leftism or insufficient communism. There are a few points that I feel I should clarify.

First of all, I want to contextualize the effort of the leaflet. My active “political life” is relatively short for this milieu, basically beginning with recently joining IP. Previously in my development, I was drawn to the works of Monsieur Dupont, Letters Journal, etc., with their critiques of activism, organization, and the leftism of the ultraleft. This ‘salon’ once claimed something like that proselytizing pro-revolutionaries must either sound like used-car salesmen or millenarians, and I think in some ways this is true. However, I am optimistic enough to think this work is worthwhile. I think revolution is possible, and I think intervention can make a difference. I thought this leaflet would be a good opportunity for me to crystallize this shift — from a basically schizoid line of “communists should only talk to communists” to believing in the importance of clear communication of communist politics. However, I had difficulty writing the pamphlet because I couldn’t figure out the intended audience. Given the context of demonstrations where I live, I tried to think about who would be at such a demonstration and how I would speak to such people. Where I live, it is given that demonstrations about the war, if not immediately nationalistic, would all be heavily leftist. It is also safe to assume that such demos would not have “working class character”. My goals in writing the leaflet to distribute at such a demo were to practice expressing myself — perhaps to an audience too-familiar with leftist sloganeering — and for an internationalist perspective to be heard.

I can understand concerns that the text was not as class-forward as other polemics. I didn’t write the text to be in conversation with leftism, but to an audience who may have been exposed to leftism before. I think it is important to meet people in their rage and grief, and to validate their anguish before pointing to the larger picture. Telling people that their (popular / democratic / etc.) solutions to such horrors won’t work because the world is much worse than they realize is painful and difficult. The narrative arc I decided on was (1) to underscore how awful things are (2) highlight that this is a part of a concerted pattern (3) identify the actors at play (4) show the system which leases them power, and (5) point to an agency which can change the world. I think this was an appropriate choice for an anti-war protest.

Marlowe claims that the leaflet “flirts with opportunism by diluting what we have to say to the working class to make it amenable to people we are likely to meet on demonstrations.” I think the text does change the presentation and style of what IP has to say to the working class, and does so to make it more amenable to people at protests, but I also think the stakes of leafleting are low. What we do is important but I think it’s important to be realistic about the impact of our actions.

I think Marlowe’s objections to “calling” are misplaced, or are already anticipated. This is not a Trotskyist transitional program with a list of reform demands that can never be satisfied. “We call for” means “we want” or “we stand for.” I think an argument can be made that these lines are bad since they anticipate the questions of a skeptical buyer on the ideological marketplace: “but what would you do if you were in power?”. I’m happy to drop such phrases for formulations like “there can be no xyz without proletarian revolution.”

I think the theoretical concerns about the causes of this war are valid. I think this is another place where it is essential that we know our audience — meditations on the ‘aims’ of capital vs. those of its personifications can weigh down a polemic, especially when the right balance of simplicity and accuracy is delicate.

With all that said, the text does not permit a leftist or non-communist reading. It is an explicitly communist text which identifies the working class as the only subject with the power to radically transform the world.

HK

2/7

Endnotes:

1 Among other things, the pandemic, became an opportunity for the State to treat it as an “exercise” in isolating and dividing the working-class through the imposition of a “biological image” on the population; thus reinforcing its role as provider of “solutions” for social grievances.

2 “it is an asymmetric war, which in this case means that one side’s troops first enter a home to kill an entire family, while the other can rain down bombs to the same end. Asymmetry means that many more Gazans have been murdered than Israelis, as they are the collateral damage whose lives each army has written off as an acceptable cost.”

3 But his claim that there were no struggles for immediate demands which pro-revolutionaries supported during the world wars is not correct. There was, to be true, very little class struggle except at the end of ww1, but when it occurred there were immediate demands, like in the Amsterdam general strike (1941) which demanded ending the Jewish deportations. Spoiler: the strikers lost.

4 And not a “permanent crisis”, a crisis may be prolongated as it is today but by definition it cannot be permanent; this concept flattens the cyclical course of the accumulation process.

5 It was, but only at one demo.

IP LEAFLET

No War in Gaza! Fight the Nightmare Which Haunts Us All!

War is the climax of the nightmare in Gaza. We hear the numbers rise every day, but the losses are immeasurable. Like many of the past 50 years, it is an asymmetric war, which in this case means that one side’s troops first enter a home to kill an entire family, while the other can rain down bombs to the same end. Asymmetry means that many more Gazans have been murdered than Israelis, as they are the collateral damage whose lives each army has written off as an acceptable cost. We call for an immediate end to the war, the release of hostages and prisoners, an end to the blockade. We call to build international solidarity against warmongers and nation-builders.

We refuse the language of right to the land, of border legitimacy, and of national security. The rallying cries and waving flags hide the truth: we are being tricked, bribed, or forced into the wars of our masters. We refuse to excuse mass murder in the name of “justice”, “resistance”, or “defense”. War can never bring peace or freedom beyond the peace of a graveyard and the freedom to pillage the dead.

We are not pacifists, either. A truce won’t free Gaza from the nightmare. The IDF will resume its peacetime role as prison guard, and its junior partner Hamas (or its heirs) as a prison gang. In Gaza, Israel imposes misery by limiting the flow of capital and supplies across the border, and Hamas manages this misery by taxing goods and crushing protests. For most of humanity, the end of war is at best a return to business as usual: to work their lives away to buy survival, rely on aid if there is no work, scrounge for food if there is no aid, or starve if there is no food. In Gaza, wages, aid, and food are limited. Can fighting every day to scrape by — just enough to survive — really be called “peace”?

Each side fights to change the division of power between them. As always, each side uses the other’s brutality to justify its own. As always, whoever wins, humanity loses. In Israel-Palestine, the unspoken truce was suddenly broken, as it was broken in recent years in Ukraine, in the Caucasus, and in Sudan. Frozen fronts have melted, and others seem on the verge of doing so. Everywhere military spending is rising. We are told this is needed as more war may be coming. This is all against the background of a world economy sinking steadily deeper into crisis, from which its managers know no way out — no way out but war. The destabilizing effect of this crisis melts frozen fronts across the world. Opportunities and necessities arise as existing balances of power shift. And like the weapons which must be produced for war, minds must be molded for the same purpose. Our rulers want us to admire soldiers, glorify battlefield victories, wave national flags and be convinced that fighting for justice means supporting one side against the other in inter-imperialist conflicts, which all wars are today. Siding with the nation always means siding with the ruling class of the nation, the managers or would-be managers of its capital.

Israel is not waging a colonial war in Gaza. It is collectively punishing the Gazan population for the actions of Hamas and seeks to discipline it with total warlike methods. On the West Bank it continues to eject Palestinians to provide a lebensraum for Israeli settlers. But this is also an interimperialist war, in which the US and Iran and its allies confront each other through their Israeli and Palestinian proxies. However, among the highly developed economies, Israel is unique in the proportion of surplus population under its management. The growth of a surplus population that cannot be profitably exploited by capital is a global trend. Deportations, mass incarceration, and forced displacement are common peacetime solutions, but war is capitalism’s gold standard to clear the way for growth. Israel’s combined solution of bombing concentration camps gives us a chilling view into the future of capitalism’s death world.

Freedom for Gazans can never be found in a “Free Palestine”. Even if Palestinian nationalism could wrest territory from Israel and form a state, would Palestinians get “their” land back? Nowhere in the world is there a country that belongs to “the people”. Everywhere the land and everything on it belongs to the owners. There is not a single national “liberation” struggle that freed the bulk of the population from hunger and powerlessness.

The nightmare of Gaza is a nightmare that dominates the world. In Yemen it is famine, in the Amazon it is deforestation, and everywhere it is poverty and war. The nightmare is capitalism, a social structure which begins with dispossessing most of humanity from what we need to survive. We are forced to work, animating this machine that turns life into money, whose power grows as ours is stolen. More and more the machine’s intake gets clogged, and the feed of people must be thinned out before profit extraction can resume.

When the nightmare fills our minds, it makes this world’s everyday insanity seem as normal and natural as gravity. When one forgets that another world is possible, oxymorons like “fair borders” and “humane wars” seem like sensible demands. The only way out of capitalism’s nightmare of war and work is to collectively wake up: to see the machine for what it is, to overthrow its deputies, and to reclaim our power as makers of this world. We must remake the world for all of humanity, rather than for money and its power. Until then, the monsters of class, state, and nation will haunt the earth.

We call for an end to this war, these borders, and all divisions which pit the working class against itself. We call for international solidarity and the self-organization of the working class. We call for real communism: a human community without exploitation, with freedom and dignity for all.

“Workers of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your chains. You have a world to win.”

Internationalist Perspective, December 2023

internationalistperspective.org

An Anti-War Assembly in Milan

On September 15th the Centro di Documentazione Contro la Guerra organized an open assembly called “La Guerra in Ucraina non va in Vacanza” (The war in Ukraine doesn’t go on holiday) to which IP participated. The venue was located in a central nerve of Milan at the COX 18, an occupied space since 1976, also home to the well known Calusca City Lights, now the Archivio Primo Moroni, an extensive archival project of leftist literature. The purpose of the assembly was to denounce the barbarism that is still underway in the Ukraine after 19 months from its inception, with still no end in sight.

The assembly lasted about two and a half hours and the format was very open: after a concise introduction given by the organizers, in which they restated their position of “revolutionary defeatism”1, Sandro Moiso who writes for the journal Carmilla spoke for about 45 minutes delineating the current “world disorder”; afterwards, the floor was open to discussion.

Many people intervened without any formal restraints, stating their positions, adding nuances and posing questions. The tone was never academic and many voices were heard. According to the organizers the modest turnout of about 30 people was a bit disappointing since the aim was to open the discussion of the war to a wider audience and not only to “few experts who are already certain of everything ”. But regardless of the turnout, the format and tone of the assembly was successful in connecting a range of experiences to “defeatism”, a position which was continuously bolstered throughout the evening.

In his opening remarks Francesco of the CDCG stressed that the current war in Ukraine is not simply another war among many; rather it is an inter-imperialist conflict that signals the beginning of generalized war, one that is characterized by a “new disorder” in which American unipolarity is being challenged. Once again, he said, capitalism is offering us an “out-out” situation: socialism or barbarism.

The second point that Francesco underlined was the necessity to combat the “habituation” to the war, which, he said, is nothing less than the preparation for the working-class to join in the butchery on a multi-polar terrain. As the habituation to the war deepens, he noted, there has been a growth of pacifists on the left, including many anarchists, who are in support of sending weapons to the Ukraine. This must be countered, Francesco said, by exposing the link between War and Capitalism. An assembly, he admitted, has no pretension of being a political organization. It can only point to things. Francesco, but also others from the assembly, urged the participation in upcoming strikes and protests in Italy (Oct 8, Nov 4 and 19) saying that it is imperative to intervene with a defeatist position, since the war is either absent from the agenda or holds a secondary place in these strikes and protests.

Sandro, in his talk, tried to stress the fact that this war has taken on characteristics reminiscent of previous world wars. For one, war is no longer being conducted through “special military operations” (even though they are spun that way on the home front), but is being fought by mobilizing the general army and on a massive human scale. Evidence of this, for example, is the fact that the Ukraine has recently asked the EU to send back military aged men (and boys) that have deserted “their” country. Now that Ukraine is on the counteroffensive, they need more weapons and more soldiers.

Another indicator of a move towards generalized war is the emergence of new “global players”, characteristic of the multi-polarity through which this war is likely to evolve: China, Brazil, Turkey, to name a few. War, Sandro stressed, brings contradictions of all kinds such as the formation of coalitions like BRICS, which enfolds countries who have historically been in conflict, including Ethiopia and Egypt; in this same context China has also mediated between Iran and Saudi Arabia; German and French right wing parties are now poised “against the war” due to Europe’s dependency on a Russian gas supply; and with the virtual drying up of the Silk Road commerce, Biden, at the recent G20 summit, proposed a shipping corridor linking India with the Gulf States and Europe in order to circumvent China, a fantasy because Chinese companies control virtually the entire Port of Piraeus in Greece which would be fundamental link in this supposed rout…All these contradictions are all expressions of an anti-unipolarity (sometimes understood as an anti-Americanism). But this must not, Sandro highlighted, be confused with anti-colonialism. We must understand these contradictions, Sandro insisted, by giving importance to the aleatory chaos that accompanies history and war.

Politically, all of this disorder and contradiction makes the formation of any mass anti-war movement very difficult. However, according to Sandro, war can become a catalyst for igniting a social antagonism. Regardless, he concluded, in the absence of a proletarian mass struggle, we can only exist as propagandists.

At the end of the talk many voices were raised from the assembly.

A few people spoke about the voracious militarization of civil society by the Italian state, now taking place in the schools, the militarized restructuring of the police and a rise in state’s expenditures on military propaganda as well as modernizing military bases (like the one in Ghedi that can now rapid-load nuclear warheads onto F35s).

One worker expressed optimism on the grounds that recent worker movements have gained some terrain in their struggles for wages and that these movements, which are a sign of worker’s strength, should not be neglected.

Another worker spoke passionately on the need of desertion and revolution.

A militant, working with COBAS (one of Italy’s national trade unions that attempts to maintain a base committee structure), stood up and declared that revolutionary minorities should “move beyond propaganda” and attempt to form united fronts. This sparked a discussion in which the dangers of the united front, as a sort of organizational form of compromise, were pointed out on a historical basis; even Genova was denounced as a failure due to a united front2.

When it was my turn to speak I pointed out the dangers of nationalism in preparing the terrain for the worker’s involvement in capitalist wars. This sparked a discussion on new and “subtle” forms that nationalism has taken. In particular how “individualist fears” are able to capture the class by involving them in the war economy; such as, for example, when inflation hit, prime minister Mario Draghi appealed to people’s precarious condition by saying “tighten your belts for the sake of our nation”. I insisted that defeatism must adjust to the way that the formation of the identity of the collective-worker has been integrated into nationalism on racial, xenophobic and ethnic grounds. I argued that this aspect of using biological and semi-biological markers to divide the working class has become a central part of modern warfare; and that this characteristic of imperialism, which was taken from colonialism, continues to be a further basis for the disappearance of any distinction between soldier and civilian, since entire populations can be portrayed as “the enemy”.

Sandro spoke with regards to the dangers of “ethnic nationalism” imagining the possible ease with which an American proletariat could be shifted onto a pro-war terrain by fabricating a “yellow fear”, reminding us that during the Vietnam war, the protests that helped defeat the American home front, were mostly made up by students, the black working class and veterans, while the white working class remained in the factories and in support of the war.

In the end, it was emphatically restated that capitalism has no choice but to proceed through its worsening crisis and accelerate towards war. Anti-war voices that propagate a “revolutionary defeatist” position, in which no side can be taken, must remain intransigent! In no uncertain terms must we ally ourselves with visions that would lead to a participation in capitalist barbarism!

IP applauds efforts such as this assembly that openly denounces imperialist barbarism and attempts to understand war as an inevitable outcome of capitalist relations of production. Moreover, the assembly format is able to engage the working class through open discussion while maintaining a revolutionary attitude towards crisis, nationalism and war.

S.Y.

Italy, September 17- 2023

AUDIO RECORDING OF THE ASSEMBLY

1 Here (Italian) and Here (English) is the document written by the CDCG as a contribution to the June assembly

2 The anti G8 protests that took place in Genova 2001 became famous both because of the protest’s scale and for the brutal state violence in repressing the demonstration which ended in the outright execution of Carlo Maria Giuliani. Sandro argued that the Social Forum which was the main organizer of the demonstration was essentially a united front. While police charge thousands of protesters on the coast, supposed representatives the Forum told people to go home, that the demo had been a success. In the end the media pinned the violence on a handful of black bloc.

Una tormenta perfecta

Carta del Reino Unido

Enormes franjas de la clase obrera británica están en huelga o harán huelga en los próximos días y semanas. Los recolectores de basura escoceses en todo el país están en huelga. La terminal de contenedores del puerto de Felixstowe, que maneja la mitad del tráfico de contenedores del Reino Unido, ha sido esencialmente cerrada debido a que los trabajadores están en huelga. Ha habido huelgas regulares de contratistas de ingeniería, especialmente en refinerías en todo el Reino Unido, trabajadores postales, conductores de autobuses, conductores de trenes y otros trabajadores ferroviarios, trabajadores del subte de Londres, incluso enfermeras y otros trabajadores del NHS, y los trabajadores de telecomunicaciones están en huelga o están a punto de hacerlo. Incluso los abogados penalistas están en huelga indefinida. Y también ha habido huelgas en Amazon. No ha habido nada como esto en el Reino Unido durante décadas. No se necesita mucho análisis para ver por qué está sucediendo esto.

El Reino Unido es el séptimo país más rico del mundo y, sin embargo, decenas de millones de personas se enfrentan a la pobreza. Las demandas de aumentos salariales son casi universales. De hecho el gran capitalista, el Estado, está arrancando los salarios de la clase trabajadora a un ritmo casi sin precedentes. Sin embargo, la política económica del gobierno, a diferencia de la de la década posterior a la recesión de 2008, oficialmente no es austeridad. Se podría decir que no tiene por qué serlo. Entonces, además de la década anterior de austeridad, hemos tenido la pandemia de Covid (más de 200 000 muertes), dificultades económicas para muchos, un servicio de salud en crisis con varios millones de personas esperando años para recibir tratamientos, mientras que el cambio climático trae inundaciones y sequías. Todo ello en el contexto del Brexit a través del cual la derecha del Partido Conservador ha infligido su locura económica a la población. Y luego el coup de grace: la guerra ruso-ucraniana y la crisis energética. La inflación en el Reino Unido es ahora superior al 10% y se prevé que alcance el 18% en menos de un año. A no equivocarse: la causa fundamental de esta crisis son las relaciones sociales capitalistas.

La crisis energética es el principal impulsor de la inflación actual en el Reino Unido. Sin embargo, el Reino Unido produce el 50% del gas que utiliza; obtiene el 30% de Noruega y el resto del GNL (de Oriente Medio y los EE. UU.) Solo el 3% del gas del Reino Unido proviene de Rusia, pero todo el gas tiene un precio a precio del mercado internacional que están sustancialmente impulsado por las políticas rusas. Aunque el Reino Unido genera el 40% de su electricidad a partir de gas y el 60% de fuentes renovables más baratas, los precios son fijados por la unidad más cara, que es el gas. Este es uno de los efectos de tener mercados globales y precios globales. Es bien sabido cómo en los países menos desarrollados los agricultores fueron obligados por el FMI durante décadas a producir cultivos comerciales en lugar de la variedad de cultivos consumidos localmente y los expuso a los caprichos del mercado mundial. Lo que vemos ahora en el Reino Unido es un equivalente del “primer mundo” impuesto por el Estado británico. El almacenamiento de gas del Reino Unido ha sido descartado y desmantelado, dejando al país material y financieramente más dependiente de los mercados al contado. Por lo tanto, a pesar de que los países de Europa continental son más dependientes que el Reino Unido del gas ruso, la población británica se ve más afectada.

El nivel de vida de la clase trabajadora británica está cayendo en picada. Los bancos de alimentos se han multiplicado en todo el país durante años. Estos son utilizados no sólo por los desempleados y los pobres tradicionales, sino por los trabajadores remunerados. En algunos hospitales, se han establecido bancos de alimentos para el personal. Y, como también cobran el gas y la electricidad, incluso tenemos bancos de alimentos que rechazan las donaciones de papas, porque los usuarios no pueden permitirse pagar la energía para cocinarlas.

No es de extrañar entonces, dada la miseria generalizada y simultánea que vemos, que la protesta de todos los sectores de la clase trabajadora también haya sido simultánea. Todas estas demandas de aumentos salariales provienen de la experiencia común que sienten decenas de millones de personas. Los sindicatos están volviendo al escenario de nuevo. Sin embargo, no tienen la flexibilidad que tenían, por ejemplo, en el momento de la última huelga de mineros a mediados de la década de 1980. Desde entonces, los sucesivos gobiernos han aprobado las leyes más restrictivas para atar el proceso de salir en huelga oficial a nudos más complejos. Los sindicatos están bajo una fuerte presión de los trabajadores para sonar más militantes y, sin embargo, las leyes hacen que sea mucho más difícil para los sindicatos descarrilar la militancia de los trabajadores con cualquier cosa menos hablar. ¿Detendrán las huelgas y piquetes tradicionales, cada uno en sectores aislados, el impulso de esta crisis? ¿Cuánto tiempo falta para que los trabajadores vean que la respuesta es no?

Desde la invasión rusa en Ucrania y el inicio de la crisis energética, la clase política del Reino Unido ha estado en cierto desorden. El gobierno conservador está en un bodrio, entre líderes y simplemente no sabe cuáles son sus políticas; el Partido Laborista se está recuperando de su era Corbyn, pero aún no tiene ninguna coherencia. La Unión está estresada en Escocia e Irlanda del Norte. La economía en su conjunto sufre de baja productividad crónica debido a la falta de inversión durante décadas. Los sistemas financieros y legales son corruptos. El sistema político es completamente corrupto.

Han pasado décadas desde que los trabajadores en Gran Bretaña han luchado en conjunto. Las demandas sindicales actuales de aumentos salariales no se acercan a la tasa de inflación, por lo que incluso si todas sus demandas se cumplieran, los trabajadores seguirían perdiendo. Al mismo tiempo, los patrones han recibido luz verde (como lo atestigua la acción de P&O en marzo) para despedir y reemplazar a los trabajadores con salarios más bajos; esto es ilegal, pero la bofetada que reciben los jefes del gobierno no es disuasoria. Hay poca experiencia directa entre los trabajadores de tratar con los sindicatos cuyo objetivo es siempre resolver los asuntos en interés de la nación – léase el Estado. ¿Será la caída en la pobreza para ellos y sus familias y el repugnante circo político actual lo suficientemente poderoso como para abrir los ojos de los trabajadores a la necesidad de ir más allá de las limitaciones sindicales?

Los sindicatos siempre se centran en los piquetes. Pero las necesidades de los trabajadores han ido mucho más allá. No basta con ir a la huelga. Es imperativo que los trabajadores vean más allá de los piquetes, y la huelga liderada por el sindicato no va a hacer cambios suficientes. Los trabajadores deben unirse, organizarse y debatir toda la situación en la que se encuentran. Estamos en los primeros días de una tormenta perfecta y será despiadada e implacable. Solo los trabajadores organizados en sus propias asambleas pueden llegar a otros trabajadores en todos los sectores y cerrar el país, hasta que se haga algún cambio positivo para los trabajadores. Para enfrentar la tormenta que se avecina, la clase trabajadora necesita sus propias organizaciones y objetivos que golpeen el corazón de este sistema destructivo para traer cualquier esperanza de alivio.

Marlowe

30 agosto 2022

Une tempête parfaite

Lettre de Grande Bretagne

De vastes pans de la classe ouvrière britannique sont soit en grève, soit seront en grève dans les prochains jours et semaines. Les éboueurs écossais de tout le pays sont en grève. Le port de Felixstowe, le terminal à conteneurs – qui traite la moitié du trafic de conteneurs du Royaume-Uni – a été essentiellement fermé à cause des travailleurs en grève. Il y a eu des débrayages réguliers des entrepreneurs en ingénierie, en particulier dans les raffineries du Royaume-Uni. Les postiers, les chauffeurs de bus, les conducteurs de train et autres travailleurs du rail, les travailleurs du métro de Londres, même les infirmières et autres travailleurs du NHS (National Health Service), et les travailleurs des télécoms sont tous en grève ou sur le point d’entrer en grève. Même les avocats spécialisés en droit pénal sont en grève illimitée. Et il y a aussi eu des grèves chez Amazon. Il n’y a pas eu un mouvement de telle ampleur dans le Royaume-Uni depuis des décennies. Il ne faut pas être grand clerc pour comprendre pourquoi cela se produit.

Le Royaume-Uni est la septième puissance parmi les plus riches du monde et pourtant des dizaines de millions de personnes sont confrontées à la pénurie. Les demandes d’augmentations salariales sont quasi universelles. Le simple fait est que la principale institution capitaliste – l’État – rabote les salaires de la classe ouvrière à un rythme presque sans précédent. Pourtant, la politique économique du gouvernement – contrairement à celle de la décennie qui a suivi la récession de 2008– n’est pas officiellement l’austérité. Vous pourriez dire que ce n’est pas nécessaire. Ainsi, en plus de la précédente décennie d’austérité, nous avons eu la pandémie de Covid (plus de 200 000 morts), des difficultés économiques pour beaucoup, un service de santé en crise avec plusieurs millions de personnes qui attendent des années pour bénéficier d’un traitement, tandis que le changement climatique apporte des inondations et des sécheresses. Tout ceci avec en toile de fond le Brexit, à travers lequel l’aile droite du Parti conservateur a infligé sa folie économique à toute la population. Et puis le coup de grâce : le conflit Russo-Ukrainien et la crise énergétique. L’inflation au Royaume-Uni est maintenant supérieure à 10 % et devrait atteindre 18 % dans moins d’un an. Ne vous méprenez pas : la cause profonde de cette crise est n’est autre que le rapport social capitaliste.

La crise énergétique est le principal moteur de l’inflation actuelle au Royaume-Uni. Pourtant, le Royaume-Uni produit 50 % du gaz qu’il utilise ; il obtient 30 % de la Norvège et le reste du GNL (du Moyen-Orient et les États-Unis). Seuls 3 % du gaz britannique proviennent de Russie, mais tout le gaz est vendu aux prix du marché international, qui sont largement déterminés par les politiques russes. Bien que le Royaume-Uni génère 40 % de son électricité à partir du gaz et 60 % de sources renouvelables moins chères, les prix sont fixés par le l’unité la plus chère – qui est le gaz. C’est l’un des effets d’avoir des marchés mondiaux et des prix mondiaux. On sait comment, dans les pays moins développés, les agriculteurs ont été contraints depuis des décennies par le FMI de cultiver des cultures rentables à la place des variétés de cultures consommées localement, ce qui les expose aux aléas du marché mondial. Ce que nous voyons maintenant au Royaume-Uni est un phénomène équivalent imposé par l’Etat britannique dans un pays du ‘premier monde’. Le stockage de gaz au Royaume-Uni a été abandonné et mis hors service, rendant le pays matériellement et financièrement plus dépendant des marchés. Ainsi, même si les pays d’Europe continentale sont plus dépendants que le Royaume-Uni du gaz russe, la population britannique est davantage pénalisée.

Le niveau de vie de la classe ouvrière britannique est en chute libre. Les banques alimentaires poussent comme des champignons à travers le pays depuis des années. Celles-ci ne sont pas seulement utilisés par les chômeurs et les pauvres traditionnels, mais aussi par des travailleurs actifs et rémunérés. Dans certains hôpitaux, des banques alimentaires ont été mises en place – pourle personnel. Et, alors que les frais de gaz et d’électricité montent en flèche, nous voyons même des banques alimentaires refuser les dons de pommes de terre – parce que les utilisateurs ne peuvent pas se permettre de payer l’énergie nécessaire pour les cuisiner.

Il n’est donc pas étonnant, compte tenu de la paupérisation généralisée et simultanée que nous constatons, que le tollé de tous les secteurs de la classe ouvrière a également été simultanée. Toutes ces revendications d’augmentations salariales proviennent de l’expérience commune ressentie par des dizaines de millions de personnes. Les syndicats reviennent au premier plan. Cependant, ils n’ont pas la flexibilité qu’ils avaient, disons, à l’époque de la dernière grève des mineurs au milieu des années 1980. Depuis, les gouvernements successifs ont adopté les lois les plus restrictives pour limiter le processus de grève officielle dans les secteurs les plus complexes. Les syndicats subissent une forte pression des travailleurs pour se montrer plus militants et pourtant, les lois rendent beaucoup plus ardu pour les syndicats de faire dérailler le militantisme des travailleurs avec autre chose que des paroles. Les grèves traditionnelles et les piquets de grève, chacuns dans des secteurs isolés, arrêteront-elles l’élan de cette crise? Combien de temps jusqu’à ce que les travailleurs voient que la réponse est non?

Depuis l’invasion russe de l’Ukraine et le début de la crise énergétique, la classe politique britannique a été dans un certain désarroi. Le gouvernement conservateur est dans le pétrin, les dissenssions sont fortes entre les leaders et on ne sait tout simplement pas quelles sont ses orientations politiques ; le parti travailliste se remet de son ère Corbyn mais n’a pas encore retrouvé une cohérence. L’Union est mise en avant en Ecosse et en Irlande du Nord.

L’économie dans son ensemble souffre d’une faible productivité chronique due à un sous-investissement pendant des décennies. Les systèmes financiers et juridiques sont corrompus. Le système politique est complètement corrompu.

Cela fait des décennies que les travailleurs en Grande-Bretagne n’ont pas lutté en masse. Les demandes d’augmentations de salaire de la part des syndicats ne s’approchent pas du taux d’inflation, donc même si leurs demandes étaient entièrement satisfaites, les travailleurs seraient toujours perdants. En même temps, les patrons ont reçu le feu vert (comme en témoigne l’action P&O en mars) pour licencier et remplacer les travailleurs à des salaires inférieurs ; ceci est illégal mais la tape sur les doigts que les patrons reçoivent du gouvernement n’est pas dissuasive. Les travailleurs ont peu d’expérience directe des relations avec les syndicats dont le but est toujours régler les affaires dans l’intérêt de la nation – lire l’État. La chute dans la pauvreté pour eux-mêmes et leurs familles et le cirque politique dégoûtant actuel seront-ils assez puissants pour ouvrir les yeux des travailleurs sur la nécessité de dépasser les limites syndicales ?

Les syndicats se concentrent toujours sur les piquets de grève. Mais les besoins des travailleurs vont bien au-delà. Il ne suffit pas de faire grève. Il est impératif que les travailleurs voient au-delà des piquets de grève, et réalisent qu’une grève menée par les syndicats ne changera pas suffisamment les choses. Les travailleurs doivent se rassembler,organiser et discuter de toute la situation dans laquelle ils se trouvent. Nous sommes au début d’une parfaite tempête sociale et elle sera impitoyable et implacable. Seuls les travailleurs organisés en leurs propres assemblées peuvent tendre la main à d’autres travailleurs dans tous les secteurs et immobiliser le pays jusqu’à ce qu’un changement positif soit apporté aux travailleurs. Pour affronter la tempête à venir, la classe ouvrière a besoin de ses propres organisations et d’objectifs qui frappent au cœur de ce système vicieux , afin d’apporter un espoir de soulagement.

Marlowe

30 Aout 2022

A Perfect Storm

Letter from the UK

Huge swathes of the British working class are either on strike or will strike in the coming days and weeks. Scottish refuse collectors all over the country are striking. The Port of Felixstowe container terminal – handling half of the UK’s container traffic – has been essentially shut because of striking workers. There have been regular walkouts of engineering contractors, especially at refineries across the UK Postal workers, bus drivers, train drivers and other railway workers, London Underground workers, even nurses and other NHS workers, and telecoms workers are all striking or are about to. Even the criminal barristers are on indefinite strike. And there have been strikes at Amazon too. There has been nothing like this in the UK for decades. It doesn’t take much analysis to see why this is happening.

The UK is the seventh richest country in the world and yet tens of millions of people are facing penury. The demands for wage increases are near-universal. The simple fact is that the major capitalist – the state – is gouging out the wages of the working class at an almost unprecedented rate. Yet, the government economic policy – unlike that in the decade following the 2008 recession – is not officially austerity. You could say it doesn’t have to be. So, in addition to the previous decade of austerity, we have had the Covid pandemic (over 200,000 deaths),economic hardships for many, a health service in crisis with several million people waiting years for treatments, while climate change brings floods and drought. All this against the backdrop of Brexit through which the right wing of the Conservative Party has inflicted its economic insanity on the entire population. And then the coup de grace: the Russo-Ukrainian war and the energy crisis. Inflation in the UK is now over 10% and is forecast to reach 18% in less than a year’s time. Make no mistake: the root cause of this crisis is capitalist social relations.

The energy crisis is the main driver of the current inflation in the UK. Yet, the UK produces 50% of the gas it uses; it gets 30% from Norway and the rest from LNG (from the Middle East and the US) Only 3% of UK gas comes from Russia, but all gas is priced at international market prices which are substantially driven by Russian policies. Although the UK generates 40% of its electricity from gas and 60% from cheaper renewable sources, prices are set by the most expensive unit – which is gas. This is one of the effects of having global markets and global prices. It is well-known how in less developed countries farmers were forced over decades by the IMF to grow cash crops in place of the variety of locally-consumed crops and exposed them to the vagaries of the world market. What we see now in the UK is a ‘first world’ equivalent imposed by the British state. UK gas storage has been discarded and decommissioned leaving the country materially and financially more reliant on spot markets. So, even although the Continental European countries are more dependent than the UK on Russian gas the British population is penalised more.

The standard of living of the British working class is plummeting. Food banks have been mushrooming across the country for years. These are used not just by the unemployed and the traditional poor, but by paid workers. In some hospitals, food banks have been set up – for the staff. And, as gas and electricity charges soar, we even have the food banks refusing donations of potatoes – because users can’t afford to pay for the energy to cook them.

Little wonder then, given the widespread and simultaneous immiseration we see, that the outcry of all sectors of the working class has also been simultaneous. All of these demands for wage rises come from the common experience felt by tens of millions of people. The unions are coming back to the fore again. However, they do not have the flexibility that they had, say, at the time of the last miners’ strike in the mid-1980s. Since then, successive governments have passed the most restrictive laws to tie the process of coming out on official strike into the most complex knots. The unions are under strong pressure from the workers to sound more militant and yet the laws make it far harder for unions to derail worker militancy with anything but talk.

Will traditional strikes and picket lines, each in isolated sectors, stop the momentum of this crisis? How long until the workers see that the answer is no?

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the start of the energy crisis, the UK political class has been in some disarray. The Conservative government is in a mess, between leaders and simply doesn’t know what its policies are; the Labour party is recovering from its Corbyn era but hasn’t got any coherence yet. The Union is stressed in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The economy as a whole suffers from chronic low productivity due to underinvestment for decades. The financial and legal systems are corrupt. The political system is utterly corrupt. It has been decades since the workers in Britain have struggled as a mass. Current union demands for wage increases don’t go near the rate of inflation so even if their demands were all met workers would still be losing out. At the same time, the bosses have been given the green light (as witness the P&O action in March) to fire and replace workers at lower wages;

this is illegal but the slap on the wrist the bosses receive from the government is no deterrent. There is little direct experience among the workers of dealing with the unions whose aim is always to settle matters in the interests of the nation – read the state. Will the fall into poverty for themselves and their families and the current disgusting political circus be powerful enough to open the workers’ eyes to the need to go beyond union limitations?

The unions always focus on the picket lines. But the workers’ needs have gone way beyond that. It is not enough to go on strike. It is imperative that workers see beyond the picket lines, and that a union-led strike is not going to make enough of a change. Workers must congregate, organise and discuss the whole situation they are in. We are in the early days of a perfect storm and it will be ruthless and relentless. Only workers organised into their own assemblies can reach out to other workers in all sectors and shut down the country until some positive change is made for working people. To confront the coming storm, the working class needs its own organisations and aims that strike at the heart of this vicious system to bring any hope of relief.

Marlowe

30 August 2022