war

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Venezuela, Greenland, Minneapolis….


IS HE JUST MAD OR IS THERE A STRATEGY?


More and more people think that the winner of the FIFA Peace Prize is suffering from serious mental degradation. They call him crazy, insane, nuts, flipped, deranged, disturbed, bonkers, lunatic, utterly mad and much more. But could it be that his rantings and obsessions hide a rational strategy?

Lately, the owner of Maria Machado’s Nobel Prize medal has shown even more symptoms of dementia than usual. No need to list examples: you’ve undoubtedly seen plenty of them on different media, moments that made you shake your head and wonder how such an idiot could become the most powerful person in the world.

But whatever you may think about the mental health of the self-proclaimed “acting president of Venezuela”, he is not an absolute monarch, even though he would like to be one. His power is not simply the result of his election victory in 2024; he owes it to the continued support of the majority in Congress and, above all, the capital markets. If they considered him a dangerous madman, his throne would quickly falter. When the stock and bond markets feel he’s sowing too much uncertainty and show their disapproval Trump tends to listen immediately.  

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OTRA OPERACIÓN MILITAR ESPECIAL EN CAMINO A LA GUERRA GLOBAL

¿Por qué Estados Unidos lanzó una “operación militar especial” en Venezuela? ¿Para conseguir con sus codiciosas manos el petróleo y otros recursos en ese país? ¿Para sacar a su rival imperialista China y sus aliados (Rusia, Cuba, Irán) de la región y advertir a otros países latinoamericanos del precio que podrían tener que pagar por su presencia? ¿Para conseguir una victoria fácil y ‘gloriosa’ para reforzar los decaídos números de Trump en las encuestas? La respuesta correcta es “todo lo anterior”.

Lo que sí es seguro es que no se hizo por el contrabando de drogas —ese pretexto fue una mentira tan transparante como la afirmación de Putin de que el propósito de su invasión de Ucrania era la desnazificación— ni tampoco se hizo en defensa de la democracia, Estados Unidos prefiere a la vicepresidenta de Maduro al mando porque cuenta con el apoyo del ejército, en lugar de la oposición que ganó las elecciones – y menos aún por la hostilidad hacia el socialismo venezolano, ya que no existe ni existía socialismo allí, solo un capitalismo de izquierda corrupto y brutal, enemigo declarado de la clase trabajadora. 1

Esto nos dice que diferentes estados capitalistas, las grandes potencias pero también las más pequeñas, están desacreditando abiertamente sus propios ‘valores’ y reglas hipócritas (‘derecho internacional’, ‘derechos humanos’, la convención de Ginebra, etc.)  

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ANOTHER SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION ON THE ROAD TO GLOBAL WAR

Why did the US launch a “special military operation” in Venezuela? To get their greedy hands on the oil and other resources in that country? To get its imperialist rival China and its allies (Russia, Cuba, Iran) out of the region and warn other Latin American countries of the price they might have to pay for their presence? To score an easy ‘glorious’ victory in order to shore up Trump’s sagging poll numbers? The correct answer is “all of the above”. What is certain is that it was not done because of drugs smuggling – that pretext was as transparant a lie as Putin’s claim that the purpose of his invasion of Ukraine was denazification – nor was it done for the defense of democracy – the US prefers Maduro’s vice-president in command because she has the support of the army, rather than the opposition which won the elections – and least of all because of hostility to Venezuela’s socialism, since there neither is nor was any socialism there, only a corrupt and brutal leftwing capitalism, a sworn enemy of the working class. 1

What this tells us is that different capitalist states, the big powers but smaller ones too, are openly discarting their own hypocrital ‘values’ and rules (‘international law’, ‘human rights’, the Geneva convention, etc.)  

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CAPITALISMO, CRISIS Y GUERRA


Este texto fue escrito para ser discutido en una reunión internacional sobre “derrotismo revolucionario” en Minerve, Francia, en agosto. Más adelante se publicará un informe sobre esta reunión.

Otto Dix: Soldado herido, 1916

0. ¿Por qué este texto?

Porque la reacción instintiva de la mayoría de las personas que están preocupadas y asqueadas por el creciente número de guerras y por las atrocidades a las que conducen, es asumir que son causadas por malos líderes, políticas agresivas, ideologías injustas, y apoyar al lado que parece menos malo, más pacífico y menos injusto. No es evidente comprender que estos malos líderes y políticas agresivas son en sí mismos un producto de la relación social que es el capital, y que esta relación social continuará produciendo tales líderes y políticas y una destrucción cada vez más catastrófica, a medida que se hunde más profundamente en su crisis autoproducida. Los eslóganes o los cuentos simplistas no son suficientes para convencer a muchos que están genuinamente decididos a luchar contra la guerra, de que para hacerlo, deben luchar contra el capitalismo. Debemos ser capaces de demostrarles que vivimos en un orden social global que choca brutalmente con las necesidades de la humanidad. Que es un sistema en guerra con el planeta, en guerra con la vida misma.  

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THEATER

The scene: the Oval Office, White House, Washington DC.

Present are:

Donald J Trump, president

JD Vance, vice president

Marco Rubio, Secretary of State

Pete Hegseth , Secretary of Defense

Michael Waltz, National Security Advisor

A fly on the wall

Waltz: Our starting point is that conflict with China is inevitable at some point. There is no other country that can threaten our hegemony. We must at all costs prevent this.

Trump: Exactly. We are the top predator. The world is too small for two top predators.

Waltz: So our priority is to isolate China. Expand our military power in the Pacific theater. That’s why the war in Ukraine must end. It has driven Russia into China’s arms. The BRICS is now an insignificant talking club but it could be the beginning of an anti-American bloc. We can’t allow this.. We have to detach Russia from China and we cannot do that as long as this war continues. So we are going to impose a peace that lets Russia keep its conquests. In time, we will lift sanctions and normalize relations.

Trump: There is still a lot of money to be made in Russia. I’m thinking of a Trump Tower in Moscow, for example.  

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Where are We Now?

The following text was written by Marlowe for discussion at the internationalist meeting in Brussels 2023 where “the periodisation of capitalism’ was the theoretical subject on the agenda. It is followed by a shorter text that addresses the periodisation question specifically.

The main text has two parts. In the first, Marlowe traces out the trajectory of capitalism over the past couple of hundred years and describes how capitalism has got to where it is today, emphasizing the interaction between economic, technological, social and political developments. In the second, he sketches the history of the working class struggle in the same period. He points out that there has now been over a century of onslaught on the working class without a revolutionary response. There is no organic continuity with the past revolutionary wave, the working class has to relearn everything from scratch. On today’s social protest movements he states that they contain many workers but are not led by the working class. It is imperative that the proletariat should see itself as a class and not be drowned in the wider population.

In the discussion, some comrades criticized the text for not focusing the analysis more on the impact of the deep penetration of the value form, not only in the production process but in the whole of society, transforming the conditions of capital accumulation and eroding class consciousness.  

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Wars In the Middle East (3)

Banksy

As we write this, the guns are silent in Gaza. The rain of bombs, continuing until almost the last minute before the cease-fire came into effect, has finally stopped. But rather than an end of the war, this is most likely a pause. How long will it last ? Only 42 days, if no agreement is reached between Israel and Hamas about a second exchange of prisoners/hostages. And even if the IDF doesn’t resume its mass slaughter then, the chances that the region will remain a hotbed of small scale and large scale inter-imperialist conflict are very high. And even if against all odds a lasting “peace’ would come to Gaza, it would remain hell on earth. The death and destruction accomplished in the last 15 months guarantee that. It will be a place of pain and hunger, of disease and despair. And, even more than before, it will be a prison. With prison guards to manage it and to maintain “order”.

The prison guards are back. Who else is going to impose “order” but Hamas? They were the ruling proto-state apparatus before in the strip and there’s no other. And for Israel the come back of Hamas may be the perfect excuse to resume its genocidal campaign.  

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WARS IN THE MIDDLE EAST (2)

A leaflet IP published in december 2023 on the slaughter in Gaza raised a discussion within our group. What was objected to was that the leaflet related the mass murder committed by the IDF to Israeli capitalism’s need to control and reduce a surplus population that yielded no profit for it, and that it saw in this an indication of the genocidal direction in which capitalism as a whole is going. Against this view it was argued that only the rise of interimperialist tension explains this conflict. Singh, who is not a member of IP but discussed with us, reacts to this debate in the following essay. He agrees with those who defended the leaflet that a surplus population was the target of the Israeli operation but argues that, to understand this, a distinction needs to be made between the relative surplus population which the capitalist mode of production creates everywhere and which it can contain with policing and welfarism, and consolidated surplus populationwhich is a marginalized deadweight it seeks to eliminate. The latter, so he claims, exists only in specific conditions and he goes on to show how these conditions arose in Israel/Palestine and led to the destruction of Gaza.  

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IT ALL FITS TOGETHER

WARS IN THE MIDDLE EAST (1)

After more than a decade of bloody conflict in which more than 600.000 people were killed and more than 14 million were forced to flee their homes, the Syrian ‘civil’ war seemed to have settled in a stalemate and a de facto partition of the country. And yet, only a little push was needed to topple Assad.

The government forces refused to fight. Everywhere the rebels came, there was little or no resistance, everywhere they were greeted by jubilant masses cheering the downfall of the hated regime.

But the rapid collapse of the Assad regime was not the result of a mass strike or popular revolt. The push came from outside, which underscores the interimperialist nature of the current wars in the Middle East. The conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria are all connected. While the trigger was pulled by the weaker side (as it often is), it’s now clear that the string of conflicts has considerably strengthened the grip of the US and its allies on this strategically essential region. Whether that was the US’ plan all along or whether it exploited conflicts that others set in motion, we cannot tell but in essence, it makes no difference.  

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WHY HE WON AND WHAT HE WILL DO


Anger over the increased cost of living, opposition to wars, the sense of being threatened, fear of chaos and insecurity, all contributed to the election of a (not so) new US president who will increase the cost of living, prepare for more war, accelerate the threats to life on this planet and sow plenty of chaos and insecurity.

The election of a man who can’t utter a paragraph without lying and spewing hate came as a shocking surprise to many. It shouldn’t have. In almost all elections in recent years, the opposition has won. Sometimes the left won, like in the UK, sometimes the right won, like in Argentina, sometimes both left and right won, like in France, but the ruling party or parties lost time and again. This trend reflects a general, worldwide discontent. The ruled become increasingly resentful of the rulers. With good reason. Inflation has raised the costs of living, wars multiply and are ever more destructive, climate disasters worsen, war, disasters and poverty make millions flee their homes, international tension is building, people are afraid of what’s coming…

In his “Totem and Taboo” Sigmund Freud writes that primitive kings were thought to possess powers to control the weather.  

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